UK Housing ABM Simple UI
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extensions [palette import-a fetch] globals[ setup? ; at setup phase or not interestPerTick ; interest rate, after cyclical variation has been applied; depends on interest rate and ticks per year medianPriceOfHousesForSale ;; median Price Of Houses For Sale medianPriceOfHousesForRent ;; median Price Of Houses For Rent nupShocked ndownShocked nUpshockedSell ; number of owners putting their house for sale because their income has risen nDownshockedSell ; number of owners putting their house for sale because their income has dropped nUpshockedRent ; number of owners putting their house for rent because their income has risen nDownshockedRent ; number of owners putting their house for rent because their income has dropped nDiscouraged ;; number of owners who discouraged by homeless and leave the city nExit ;; number of owners who naturally leave the city or cease to exist nEntry ;; number of owners who naturally enter or born into the city moves ; number of households moving in this step nDemolished nForceOutSell ;; number of owners whose repayment is greater than income and force to leave nOwnersOffered ;; number of owners who made an offer on a house (have enough money and have target to buy) meanIncomeForceOutSell ;; cal the mean income of all owners who are forced out due to low income to repay mortgage nForceOutRent ;; number of owners whose repayment is greater than income and force to leave meanIncomeForceOutRent ;; cal the mean income of all owners who are forced out due to low income to repay mortgage nForceInSell meanIncomeForceInSell nEvictedMortgage ;; number of evicted owners of type mortgage nEvictedRent ;; number of evicted owners of type rent nEnterMarketMortgage ;; number of owners entering the mortgage market nEnterMarketRent ;; number of owners entering the rent market nEnterMarketBuyToLet ;; number of owners entering the buy-to-let market nForceSell ;; number of owners forced to put one of their houses on the buy-to-let market meanIncomeEvictedMortgage ;; mean income of evicted owners of type mortgage meanIncomeEvictedRent ;; mean income of evicted owners of type rent nEvictedMortgageOneHouse nEvictedMortgageMoreHouses nHomeless ;; number of owners evicted from their houses (does not include owners coming into the system as immigrants) visualiseModeCurrent ;; current used visualisation mode used (prices or types) ;; globals added for simplified UI medianSalePriceHouses medianRentPriceRentHouses setup-a setup-b ;; added for the simplified UI ABM ActWhenShocked Affordability BuyerSearchLength calculate-wealth? CapitalMortgage CapitalRent clusteringRepeat cooldownPeriodBTL cooldownPeriodMortgage CycleStrength Density EntryRate eviction-threshold-mortgage eviction-threshold-rent ExitRate FullyPaidMortgageOwners HouseConstructionRate HouseMeanLifetime income-shock InitialGeography Initialisation initialOccupancy investors Locality MaxForRentPeriodPoorLandlord MaxHomelessPeriod MaxRateDurationBTL MaxRateDurationM min-price-fraction MinRateDurationBTL MinRateDurationM new-owner-type nRealtors onMarketPeriodBTL onMarketPeriodMortgage Override-Income-Capital Owned-Rent-Percentage price-difference PriceDropRate RealtorMemory RealtorOptimism RealtorTerritory rent-difference RentDropRate Savings SavingsRent savings-to-rent-threshold scenario Shocked shock-frequency TicksPerYear upgrade-tenancy ] breed [houses house ] ; a house, may be occupied or not, and may be for sale/mortgage or for rent breed [owners owner ] ; a household, may be living in a house, or may be seeking one breed [realtors realtor ] ; an estate agent breed [records record ] ; a record of a sale, kept by realtors houses-own[ myType ; type of house; owned or rented; can be others as well local-realtors ; the local realtors of the house local-sales ; the records for the sale transactions of houses in the intersection of the locality of self and realtor local-rents ; the records for the rent transactions of houses in the intersection of the locality of self and realtor locality-houses ; the houses in my own locality (an agentset) end -of-life ; time step when this house will be demolished for-sale? ; whether this house is currently for sale or rent for-rent? ; whether this house is currently for rent on-market-period ; time the house has been on the market date-for-sale ; when the house was put on the market for sale date-for-rent ; when the house was put on the market for rent my-owner ; the owner of this house; owner may not be living in the house if it is rented sale-price ; the price of this house (either now, or when last sold); price sold and rented rent-price ; the rent price of this house quality ; index of quality of this house relative to its neighbours my-realtor ; if for sale/rent, which realtor is selling it offered-to ; which owner has already made an offer for this house offer-date ; date of the offer (in ticks) rented-to ; which renter has already made an offer for this house rent-date ; date of the rent offer (in ticks) my-occupier ; the individual that lives here; can be the owner or the renter diversity ; the diversity index of the house (only used for visualisation) G ; Getis-Ord z-score for the hotspot analysis ] owners-own[ my-house ; the house which this owner owns/rents income ; current income from work per year (this is the ONLY yearly measure) income-rent ; income from rent per tick income-surplus ; residual income after spending on housing commodities surplus-rent ; residual rent for each house after deducing its repayment mortgage ; value of mortgage - reduces as it is paid off mortgage-initial ; value of initial mortgage (does not decrease every tick) mortgage-duration ; the remaining time on the mortgage rate ; the yearly interest rate of the currently aggreed mortgage rate-duration ; the remaining years on the current rate (at the end updates) capital ; capital that I have accumulated from selling my house wealth ; capital + sale-prices of houses - mortgages repayment ; my mortgage repayment amount, at each tick my-rent ; rent at each tick homeless ; count of the number of periods that this owner has been without a house myType ; type of owner, 1 for owned and 0 for rented made-offer-on ; house that this owner wants to buy/rent date-of-acquire ; when my-house was bought/rented my-ownership ; houses I own on-market? ; currently on the market or not (myType depicts the type of the market I use) on-market-type ; type of market a buyer is on now time-on-market ; number of ticks a buyer has been on the market on-cooldown? ; whether the owner is in the cooldown period or not (cooldown occurs after an owner gets discouraged from the BTL market) on-cooldown-type ; type of market from which the owner is on cooldown ("mortgage" or "buy-to-let") time-on-cooldown ; the number of ticks the owner has been on cooldown propensity ; the probability I will invest in housing ] realtors-own[ my-houses-rent ; the houses in my territory for rent sales-rent ; the last few house for rent that I have made my-houses-sold ; the houses in my territory for sale sales-sold ; the last few house sales that I have made average-price ; the average price (sale) of a house in my territory average-rent ; the average rent of a house in my territory ] records-own[ the-house ; the house that was sold or rented selling-price ; the selling price ;;YG renting-price ; the renting price date ; the date of the transaction (in ticks) filed-at-houses ; houses that filed the record ] to reset ; baseline set ActWhenShocked false set Affordability 33 set BuyerSearchLength 5 set calculate-wealth? true set CapitalMortgage 100 set CapitalRent 50 set clusteringRepeat 3 set cooldownPeriodBTL 6 set cooldownPeriodMortgage 6 set CycleStrength 0 set Density 70 set EntryRate 4 set eviction-threshold-mortgage 2 set eviction-threshold-rent 1 set ExitRate 2 set FullyPaidMortgageOwners 0 set HouseConstructionRate 0.36 set HouseMeanLifetime 100 set income-shock 20 set InitialGeography "Random" set Initialisation "repayment--> mortgage--> price" set initialOccupancy 0.95 set InterestRate 3.7 set investorspercentage 20 set Locality 3 set MaxForRentPeriodPoorLandlord 4 set MaxHomelessPeriod 7 set MaxLoanToValue 90 set MaxRateDurationBTL 5 set MaxRateDurationM 5 set MeanIncome 30000 set min-price-fraction 0.2 set MinRateDurationBTL 2 set MinRateDurationM 2 set mInterest 8 set MortgageDuration 25 set mYear 100 set new-owner-type "random" set nRealtors 6 set nYears 300 set onMarketPeriodBTL 1 set onMarketPeriodMortgage 1 set Override-Income-Capital false set Owned-Rent-Percentage 50 set pLTV 90 set price-difference 5000 set PriceDropRate 3 set RealtorMemory 10 set RealtorOptimism 3 set RealtorTerritory 16 set rent-difference 500 set RentDropRate 3 set Savings 20 set SavingsRent 5 set savings-to-rent-threshold 5 set scenario "base-line" set Shocked 20 set shock-frequency 0 set StampDuty? false set TicksPerYear 4 set upgrade-tenancy 0 set VisualiseMode "Prices" set WageRise 0 end to setup clear-all reset-ticks reset ; identify the current state of the model is initialisation set setup? true ; yearly interest rate is converted to interest per tick to be used to calculate finances of the owners at the setup set interestPerTick InterestRate / ( TicksPerYear * 100 ) set investors investorsPercentage / 100 ;no-display ; if do not want to visualize ; create realtors build-realtors ; create houses let total count patches * Density / 100 ; houses density ; how many of the total for ownership and how many for rent let owned ceiling Owned-Rent-Percentage * total / 100 let rented total - owned repeat (owned) [ build-house "mortgage"] ; create ownership houses repeat (rented) [ build-house "rent"] ; create rent houses ; create owners build-owners ask owners [update-surplus-income] ; empty houses are for sale/rent; setting sale price (not related to owner) reset-empty-houses if InitialGeography = "Clustered" [ cluster ] ;; move houses to the neighbors with similar prices reset-houses-quality ; assign quality to houses based on prices in the neighborhood reset-realtors ;; initialize sales, my-houses, average-price build-records ;; calculate the wealth of each household if calculate-wealth? = true [ask owners [update-wealth]] set VisualiseModeCurrent VisualiseMode update-visualisation ; identify the current state of the model is running set setup? false end to simplified-setup-step-1 clear-all reset-ticks type "Applied Setup step 1\n" fetch:url-async "https://raw.githubusercontent.com/YahyaGamal/Housing_ABM_Simple_UI/refs/heads/main/Worlds/S18.4.2_01_clean.csv" import-a:world end to simplified-setup-step-2 reset-ticks ask realtors [draw-circle RealtorTerritory] set visualiseMode "Prices" update-visualisation set setup-a 1 set setup-b 1 random-seed new-seed type "Applied Setup step 2\n" end to build-realtors set-default-shape realtors "flag" ;; let direction random 360 create-realtors nRealtors [ ;; create one at a time, totally nRealtors set color red ; distribute realtors in a rough circle set heading direction jump (max-pxcor - min-pxcor) / 4 ;; jump outward by 1/4 of length of the world set direction direction + 120 + random 30 ; prepare direction of jump for the next realtor set size 1 ;; original 3, here only 1 is visually good ; draw a circle to indicate a realtor's territory draw-circle RealtorTerritory ;; RealtorTerritory is slider global variable ] end to draw-circle [radius] ;; draw the circumference of a circle at the given radius hatch 1 [ ;; based on current turtle, let's create/hatch a new turtle which inherit its parent's properties set pen-size 1 set color white set heading -90 fd radius ;; set up pen size, color and radius for drawing a circle set heading 0 ;; set the heading to be tanget line direction pen-down while [heading < 359 ] [ rt 1 fd (radius * sin 1) ] ;; drawing a circle, see the debug proof below die ;; end the drawing turtle ] end ; now we only builds mortgage houses during the run (no input is used with type "rent" in go, but we initially build rent houses at setup) to build-house [mtype] set-default-shape houses "house" create-houses 1 [ ; assign type set myType mtype if myType = "mortgage" [set color 45] if myType = "rent" [set color 95] ; for speed, dump the house anywhere, check if there is already a house there, and if so, move to an empty spot move-to one-of patches if count houses-here > 1 [ ;; if more than 1 houses on the current patch ;; houses-here == turtles-here let empty-sites patches with [ not any? houses-here ] ;; ask every patch to see whether it already has a house on it or not, if not consider it an empty-site if any? empty-sites [ move-to one-of empty-sites ] ;; if empty-sites exist, let current house move to any one of the empty-site ] ifelse calculate-wealth? = true [ ; find a list of the local-realtors (list type is required for wealth calculation) set local-realtors [self] of realtors with [ distance myself < RealtorTerritory ] let temp-locals-list (list) repeat length local-realtors [set temp-locals-list lput (list) temp-locals-list] set local-sales temp-locals-list set local-rents temp-locals-list set locality-houses [self] of houses with [distance myself <= locality] ask turtle-set locality-houses [set locality-houses lput myself locality-houses] ; if no realtor assigned, then choose nearest if not any? turtle-set local-realtors [ set local-realtors (list min-one-of realtors [ distance myself ]) set local-sales (list (list)) set local-rents (list (list)) ] ] ; if calculate-wealth? = false [ ; assign to a realtor or realtors if in their territory set local-realtors realtors with [ distance myself < RealtorTerritory ] ;; if the realtor to the house distance < radius, make the realtor(s) for the house ; if no realtor assigned, then choose nearest if not any? local-realtors [ set local-realtors turtle-set min-one-of realtors [ distance myself ] ] ;; turtle-set to check ] put-on-market ; initially empty houses are for sale, exluded when owners are build in the setup; all houses created later are put on market set my-owner nobody set my-occupier nobody set rented-to nobody set offered-to nobody ; note how long this house will last before it falls down and is demolished set end-of-life ticks + int random-exponential ( HouseMeanLifetime * TicksPerYear ) ] end ;; Considers the presence of a rent market to put-on-market ;; reset market period counter set on-market-period 0 ;; add the house to the mortgage or rent market if myType = "mortgage" [put-on-sale-market] if myType = "rent" [put-on-rent-market] end ;; adds the house to the sale market to put-on-sale-market set for-sale? true set for-rent? false set offered-to nobody set date-for-sale ticks colour-house end ;; adds the house to the renting market to put-on-rent-market set for-sale? false set for-rent? true set offered-to nobody set date-for-rent ticks colour-house end ;; create owners to build-owners set-default-shape owners "dot" ;; all owners are dots ; in the setup, how many houses are occupied let n floor (initialOccupancy * count houses) ; total occupancy let o floor (Owned-Rent-Percentage / 100 * n) ; owned occupancy let r n - o ; rented occupancy let available-owned nobody let available-rented nobody let count-notavailable-owned 0 let count-notavailable-rented 0 ; setting availabilities if (o > count houses with [myType = "mortgage"]) [ set available-owned houses with [myType = "mortgage"] set count-notavailable-owned o - count houses with [myType = "mortgage"] ] if (o <= count houses with [myType = "mortgage"]) [ set available-owned n-of o houses with [myType = "mortgage"] ] if (r > count houses with [myType = "rent"]) [ set available-rented houses with [myType = "rent"] set count-notavailable-rented r - count houses with [myType = "rent"] ] if (r <= count houses with [myType = "rent"]) [ set available-rented n-of r houses with [myType = "rent"] ] ask available-owned [ ;; define each home-owner's properties ;; since owners living inside, it should not for-sale or for rent now set for-sale? false set for-rent? false hatch-owners 1 [ ;; create an owner inside this house set color black ;; make owner red set size 0.7 ;; owner easy to see but not too big set propensity random-float 1.0 set my-house myself ;; owner claims its house ;; added occupier and rented-to set my-ownership (list myself) ask my-house [set my-owner myself set my-occupier myself set rented-to nobody] ;; ask the house to claim its owner and occupier set mytype "mortgage" ; owner assign-income ;; create income and capital for owner# ;; address rent from house (owner lives in the house, and accordingly income-rent = 0 set income-rent (list 0) set surplus-rent (list 0) ;; address mortgage rate duration (can be assigned regardless of actual mortgage) set rate (list interestPerTick) set rate-duration (list ((MinRateDurationM + random (MaxRateDurationM - MinRateDurationM)) * ticksPerYear) ) set mortgage-duration (list (MortgageDuration * ticksPerYear)) let deposit 0 if initialisation = "repayment--> mortgage--> price" [ ; maximum repayment let max-repayment (income * Affordability / (ticksPerYear * 100)) let max-mortgage min list ( (1 - ( 1 + interestPerTick ) ^ ( - MortgageDuration * TicksPerYear )) * max-repayment / interestPerTick ) ( (capital * (MaxLoanToValue / 100)) / (1 - (MaxLoanToValue / 100)) ) set mortgage (list max-mortgage) set mortgage-initial (list item 0 mortgage) set repayment (list( item 0 mortgage * interestPerTick / (1 - ( 1 + interestPerTick ) ^ ( - MortgageDuration * TicksPerYear )) )) set deposit ( item 0 mortgage * ( 100 / MaxLoanToValue - 1 ) ) ;; create deposit ;set repayment (list (income * Affordability / (ticksPerYear * 100)) ) ;set mortgage (list ( (1 - ( 1 + interestPerTick ) ^ ( - MortgageDuration * TicksPerYear )) * item 0 repayment / interestPerTick )) ;set mortgage-initial (list item 0 mortgage) ;set deposit ( item 0 mortgage * ( 100 / MaxLoanToValue - 1 ) ) ;; create deposit ] if initialisation = "mortgage--> price" [ ;; address mortgage, repayment and deposit set mortgage (list( income * Affordability / ( interestPerTick * ticksPerYear * 100 ) )) ;; create mortgage as a list set mortgage-initial (list item 0 mortgage) set deposit ( item 0 mortgage * ( 100 / MaxLoanToValue - 1 ) ) ;; create deposit ;; create repayment as a list set repayment (list( item 0 mortgage * interestPerTick / (1 - ( 1 + interestPerTick ) ^ ( - MortgageDuration * TicksPerYear )) )) ] ;; create sale-price = mortgage + deposit for the house ask my-house [ set sale-price [item 0 mortgage] of myself + deposit set rent-price 0 ] ] ] ;; assign tenants and landlords to the houses rented ask available-rented [ ;; since owners living inside, it should not be for-sale or for rent set for-sale? false set for-rent? false hatch-owners 1 [ ;; create an owner inside this house set color white ;; make owner red set size 0.7 ;; owner easy to see but not too big set propensity random-float 1.0 set my-house myself ;; owner claims its house ;; manage ownership of house and owner agent set my-ownership (list) let owner-temp one-of owners with [mytype = "mortgage"] let house-temp myself set mytype "rent" ; renter/tenant (i.e., someone living now in a rented house) assign-income ;; create income and capital for owner (i.e. renter) ;; renters do not pay mortgage and have no repayments, but they pay rent let rent income * Affordability / (ticksPerYear * 100 ) ;; create rent ;; address mortgage rate duration (can be assigned regardless of actual mortgage) set rate (list) set rate-duration (list) set mortgage-duration (list) let price 0 let repayment-temp 0 if initialisation = "repayment--> mortgage--> price" [ set repayment-temp income * Affordability / (ticksPerYear * 100 ) set price (1 - ( 1 + interestPerTick ) ^ ( - MortgageDuration * TicksPerYear )) * repayment-temp / interestPerTick ] if initialisation = "mortgage--> price" [ set price income * Affordability / ( interestPerTick * ticksPerYear * 100 ) set repayment-temp price * interestPerTick / (1 - ( 1 + interestPerTick ) ^ ( - MortgageDuration * TicksPerYear )) ] ;; safegaurd that landlords at least recover their repayments from the rent (this leads to much higher rents with higher interest rates) if repayment-temp > rent [set rent repayment-temp] ;; add an owner to the rented house (required for adding the rent value to that person) ask my-house [ set my-owner owner-temp set my-occupier myself set rented-to myself ;; set sale price of the rented house the same as the sale-price of my-house of the main owner ;set sale-price [sale-price] of ([my-house] of owner-temp) set sale-price price set rent-price rent ] ;; manage ownership, mortgage, repayment and rent of the landlord of the house ask owner-temp [ set my-ownership lput (house-temp) (my-ownership) ;set mortgage lput (item 0 mortgage) (mortgage) set mortgage lput (price) (mortgage) set mortgage-initial lput (price) (mortgage-initial) ;set repayment lput (item 0 repayment) (repayment) set repayment lput (repayment-temp) (repayment) set income-rent lput rent income-rent set surplus-rent lput (rent - repayment-temp) surplus-rent ;; address mortgage rate duration (can be assigned regardless of actual mortgage) set rate lput (interestPerTick) (rate) set rate-duration lput ((MinRateDurationBTL + random (MaxRateDurationBTL - MinRateDurationBTL)) * ticksPerYear) (rate-duration) set mortgage-duration lput (MortgageDuration * ticksPerYear) mortgage-duration ] set my-rent rent ;; intialise mrotgage, repayment and income-rent as empty lists set mortgage (list) set mortgage-initial (list) set repayment (list) set income-rent (list) set surplus-rent (list) ask my-house [ set sale-price price set rent-price rent ] ;; create rent-price = rent ] ] ;; assign owners (i.e., landlords) to houses available on the rent market (i.e., not occupied) ask houses with [myType = "rent" and for-rent? = true] [ let owner-temp one-of owners with [mytype = "mortgage"] let house-temp self ask owner-temp [ set my-ownership lput (house-temp) (my-ownership) ;; repeat the mortgage (we assume sale-prices are based on income, this makes the sale-price of all houses owned by one owner the same at initialisation) set mortgage lput (item 0 mortgage) (mortgage) set mortgage-initial lput (item 0 mortgage-initial) (mortgage-initial) set repayment lput (item 0 repayment) (repayment) set income-rent lput 0 (income-rent) set surplus-rent lput (0 - item 0 repayment) surplus-rent ;; address mortgage rate duration (can be assigned regardless of actual mortgage) set rate lput (interestPerTick) (rate) set rate-duration lput ((MinRateDurationBTL + random (MaxRateDurationBTL - MinRateDurationBTL)) * ticksPerYear) (rate-duration) set mortgage-duration lput (MortgageDuration * ticksPerYear) mortgage-duration ] ask house-temp [ set my-owner owner-temp set my-occupier nobody set rented-to nobody ;; set sale price of the rented house the same as the sale-price of my-house of the main owner (this is an assumption at set-up) set sale-price [sale-price] of ([my-house] of owner-temp) set rent-price median [rent-price] of houses with [myType = "rent" and for-rent? = false] ] ] ; houses not assigned if count-notavailable-owned > 0 [ create-owners count-notavailable-owned [ set color black ;; make owner red set size 0.7 ;; owner easy to see but not too big ;; was nobody in 17.6 ;; returned to nobody in 18.0 ;set my-house one-of houses with [myType = "rent" and my-occupier = nobody] ;; owner claims its house set my-house nobody set my-ownership (list) set mytype "mortgage" ; mortgage owner assign-income ;; create income and capital for owner ;let rent income * Affordability / (ticksPerYear * 100 ) ;; create rent set my-rent 0 set mortgage (list) set mortgage-initial (list) set repayment (list) set income-rent (list) set surplus-rent (list) set rate (list) set rate-duration (list) set mortgage-duration (list) enter-market self myType ] ] ; tenants without houses at initialisation assigned if count-notavailable-rented > 0 [ create-owners count-notavailable-rented [ ;; create an owner inside this house ;set hidden? true ;move-to one-of patches set color white ;; make owner red set size 0.7 ;; owner easy to see but not too big ;; was nobody in 17.6 ;; returned to nobody in 18.0 ;set my-house one-of houses with [myType = "rent" and my-occupier = nobody] ;; owner claims its house set my-house nobody set my-ownership (list) set mytype "rent" ; renter assign-income ;; create income and capital for owner ;let rent income * Affordability / (ticksPerYear * 100 ) ;; create rent set my-rent 0 set mortgage (list) set mortgage-initial (list) set repayment (list) set income-rent (list) set surplus-rent (list) set rate (list) set rate-duration (list) set mortgage-duration (list) enter-market self myType ] ] ;; pay the mortgage of a portion of the owners (this cannot be applied when calculating the mortgages as the mortgage values are necessary to set prices) if FullyPaidMortgageOwners > 0 [ ask owners with [myType = "mortgage"] [ if FullyPaidMortgageOwners >= random 100 [ let i 0 let l length my-ownership ;; loop through all the ownership houses while [i < l] [ set mortgage replace-item i mortgage 0 set mortgage-initial replace-item i mortgage-initial 0 set mortgage-duration replace-item i mortgage-duration nobody set repayment replace-item i repayment 0 set surplus-rent replace-item i surplus-rent (item i income-rent) set rate replace-item i rate 0 set rate-duration replace-item i rate-duration nobody set i i + 1 ] ] ] ] end to assign-income ;; an owner's income is a random number from a particular gamma distribution ;; an owner's capital is a proportion of income ;; income distribution formula is based on the following paper ;; parameters taken from http://www2.physics.umd.edu/~yakovenk/papers/PhysicaA-370-54-2006.pdf let MeanIncome-temp MeanIncome ;; override mean income if it does not cover the mean repayments let mean-deposit 0 let min-deposit 0 if (Override-Income-Capital = true and setup? = false) [ let mean-price 0 let min-price 0 if any? houses with [myType = "mortgage" and sale-price > 0 and for-sale? = true] [ set mean-price max list (mean [sale-price] of houses with [myType = "mortgage" and sale-price > 0 and for-sale? = true]) (medianPriceOfHousesForSale) set min-price max list (min [sale-price] of houses with [myType = "mortgage" and sale-price > 0 and for-sale? = true]) (min [sale-price] of houses with [myType = "mortgage" and sale-price > 0]) ] set mean-deposit mean-price * ( 1 - (MaxLoanToValue / 100) ) set min-deposit min-price * ( 1 - (MaxLoanToValue / 100) ) let mean-mortgage mean-price * (MaxLoanToValue / 100) let mean-repayment mean-mortgage * interestPerTick / ( 1 - (1 + interestPerTick) ^ (- MortgageDuration * TicksPerYear) ) set MeanIncome-temp max list (mean-repayment * TicksPerYear) (MeanIncome) ] let alpha 1.3 let lambda 1 / 20000 set income 0 ; avoid impossibly low incomes (i.e. less than half the desired mean income) while [ income < MeanIncome-temp / 2 ] [ ;; as long as income is less than half of median income set income (MeanIncome-temp * lambda / alpha ) * (random-gamma alpha lambda) * (1 + (WageRise / (TicksPerYear * 100)) ) ^ ticks ;; redefine income value with this equation (check the paper for details ) ] ;; assign the income-surplus initially as the income per tick (deductions will be made later from the income surplus) set income-surplus income / ticksPerYear ; if override capital is on, assure the mortgage owners have enough capital to at least buy the cheapest house on the market ifelse (Override-Income-Capital = true and setup? = false) [ if myType = "mortgage" [set capital max list (income * CapitalMortgage / 100) ( (min-deposit + mean-deposit) / 2)] ] ; if not, give them a proportion of a year's income as their savings [ if myType = "mortgage" [set capital income * CapitalMortgage / 100] ] if myType = "rent" [set capital income * CapitalRent / 100] end to update-surplus-income set income-surplus (income / ticksPerYear) + sum(income-rent) - sum(repayment) - my-rent end to update-cooldown ;; if the household is on BTL cooldown and have not reached the end of its cooldown period if on-cooldown? = true and on-cooldown-type = "buy-to-let" [ if time-on-cooldown < cooldownPeriodBTL [set time-on-cooldown time-on-cooldown + 1] ;; if the household reached the end of its cooldown period if time-on-cooldown >= cooldownPeriodBTL [ ;;type self type " | time-on-cooldown = " type time-on-cooldown type "\n" set on-cooldown? false set time-on-cooldown 0 set on-cooldown-type nobody ] ] ;; if the household is on mortgage market cooldown and have not reached the end of its cooldown period if on-cooldown? = true and on-cooldown-type = "mortgage" [ if time-on-cooldown < cooldownPeriodMortgage [set time-on-cooldown time-on-cooldown + 1] ;; if the household reached the end of its cooldown period if time-on-cooldown >= cooldownPeriodMortgage [ ;;type self type " Mortgage | time-on-cooldown = " type time-on-cooldown type "\n" set on-cooldown? false set time-on-cooldown 0 set on-cooldown-type nobody ] ] end to update-wealth if calculate-wealth? = True [ let i 0 set wealth capital while [i < length my-ownership] [ let mortgage-temp item i mortgage let my-ownership-temp item i my-ownership let myType-temp [myType] of item i my-ownership let sale-price-temp 0 ask my-ownership-temp [ set my-realtor max-one-of turtle-set local-realtors [ valuation myself ] ;; set the realtor that gives the current house the highest valuation to be my-realtor set myType "mortgage" ask my-realtor [set sale-price-temp valuation my-ownership-temp] set myType myType-temp ] set wealth wealth + (sale-price-temp - mortgage-temp) set i i + 1 ] ] end to reset-empty-houses ;; For vacant houses, without owners, those houses have no sale-prices, my-owner properties let median-price 0 let median-rent 0 ; initial random assignments set median-price median [ sale-price ] of houses with [ sale-price > 0 and myType = "mortgage"] ;; median sale-prices of all houses with owners ;; consider rent-price for rented houses set median-rent median [ rent-price ] of houses with [ rent-price > 0 and myType = "rent"] ;; median sale-prices of all houses with owners ;; check my-occupier for empty houses ask houses with [ not (is-owner? my-occupier) and myType = "mortgage"] [ ;; loop each empty house owned? let local-houses-sale houses with [distance myself < Locality and sale-price > 0 and myType = "mortgage"] let local-houses-rent houses with [distance myself < Locality and rent-price > 0 and myType = "rent"] ;; assign sale ;; find all local houses of the empty house = locality distance and has owner with sale-price ifelse any? local-houses-sale ;; if there exist local houses, [ set sale-price median [ sale-price ] of local-houses-sale ] ;; use local houses median price as the empty house sale-price [ set sale-price median-price ] ;; otherwise, use all occupied houses median price for the empty house sale-price ;; assign rent ;; find all local houses of the empty house ifelse any? local-houses-rent [ set rent-price median [ rent-price ] of local-houses-rent ] ;; use local houses median price as the empty house sale-price [ set rent-price median-rent ] ;; otherwise, use all occupied houses median price for the empty house sale-price ] ;; consider rent-price of local houses ask houses with [ not (is-owner? my-occupier) and myType = "rent"] [ ;; loop each empty house NOT owned? let local-houses houses with [distance myself < Locality and rent-price > 0 and myType = "rent"] ;; find all local houses of the empty house ifelse any? local-houses [ set rent-price median [ rent-price ] of local-houses ] ;; use local houses median price as the empty house sale-price [ set rent-price median-rent ] ;; otherwise, use all occupied houses median price for the empty house sale-price ] end to cluster ;; cluster houses together based on price similarity let owned-houses houses with [myType = "mortgage"] let rented-houses houses with [myType = "rent"] cluster-type owned-houses price-difference cluster-type rented-houses rent-difference end to cluster-type [all-houses diff] repeat clusteringRepeat [ ;; cluster all all houses x times let houses-to-move sort-by [ [ house1 house2 ] -> price-diff house1 > price-diff house2 ] all-houses ;; new-version ;; reorder every house based on price-difference to its neighbor houses, largest first, smallest last foreach houses-to-move [ ;; loop each house x -> if price-diff x >= diff [ ;; if current house price is way too different from its surroundign houses let vacant-plot one-of patches with [ ;; get one of many empty patches, where not any? houses-here and ;; there is no house built abs (local-price - [ sale-price ] of x ) < (diff / 5) ] ;; where the surrounding house prices is similar to the current house if vacant-plot != nobody [ ;; if those empty patches do exist ask x [ ;; ask this current house move-to vacant-plot ;; to move to one of the empty patch if is-owner? my-occupier [ ;; whether it got an owner, if so ask my-occupier [ move-to myself ] ;; ask the owner move to where the house is ] ] ] ] ] ] end to-report price-diff [ a-house ] report abs ([sale-price] of a-house - [local-price] of a-house) ;; Note the use [ local-price ] of a-house end to-report local-price let local-houses houses-on neighbors ;; based on the current patch, looking for its eight neighbor patches, put all the houses on those patches under `local-houses` ;; report prices of mortgaged houses only (do not report prices of rented houses) ifelse any? local-houses with [mytype = "mortgage"] ;; if `loca-houses` is not empty [ report median [sale-price] of local-houses with [mytype = "mortgage"] ] ;; report median price of all neighbor houses' sale-prices to be `local-price` [ report 0 ] ;; if no neighbor houses, report 0 to be `local-price` end to reset-houses-quality set medianPriceOfHousesForSale median [sale-price] of houses with [myType = "mortgage"] ;; get median price for all houses owned set medianPriceOfHousesForRent median [rent-price] of houses with [myType = "rent"] ;; get median price for all houses not owned ask houses with [myType = "mortgage"] [ set quality sale-price / medianPriceOfHousesForSale ;; quality is sale-price/median-price if quality > 3 [set quality 3] if quality < 0.3 [set quality 0.3] ;; quality is between 0.3 to 3 set color scale-color color quality 5 0 ;; quality by magenta scale ] ;; address rented houses ask houses with [myType = "rent"] [ set quality rent-price / medianPriceOfHousesForRent ;; quality is sale-price/median-price if quality > 3 [set quality 3] if quality < 0.3 [set quality 0.3] ;; quality is between 0.3 to 3 set color scale-color color quality 5 0 ;; quality by magenta scale ] end to reset-realtors ask realtors [ set sales-sold [] ;; take sales as empty list set sales-rent [] ;; take sales as empty list set my-houses-sold houses with [member? myself local-realtors and myType = "mortgage"] set my-houses-rent houses with [member? myself local-realtors and myType = "rent"] set average-price median [ sale-price ] of my-houses-sold ;; consider average rent set average-rent median [ rent-price ] of my-houses-rent ] end to build-records ;; create records for each and every house ;; at the start, every house is assumed to be sold previously and has a record ;; the house's sale-price is the record's selling-price, ;; my-realtor is set randomly at the start, and this realtor will store the record into its sales list set-default-shape records "square" ask houses [ ;; loop each house let the-record nobody ;; `the-record` is nobody hatch-records 1 [ ;; hatch a record from a house hide-turtle ;; hide the current record set the-house myself ;; take the current house to be the-house of the current record set selling-price [ sale-price ] of myself ;; take the sale-price of the house to be selling-price of the current record ;; consider renting prices set renting-price [ rent-price] of myself set the-record self ;; use the-record to carry the current record outside the hatch function into the house context ] set my-realtor one-of local-realtors ;; randomly take one of the local-realtors to be my-realtor of the current house file-record my-realtor the-record ;; ask my-realtor to save the current record (the-record) into sales of my-realtor ] end to file-record [ input-realtor the-record ] ;; realtor procedure ; push this sales record onto the list of those I keep let A [the-house] of the-record ask input-realtor [ ; consider both rent and mortgage if [myType] of A = "mortgage" [set sales-sold fput the-record sales-sold] if [myType] of A = "rent" [set sales-rent fput the-record sales-rent] ] if calculate-wealth? = true [ ; find local houses and store which houses filed the-record ;let A-local-houses houses with [distance A <= locality and member? input-realtor local-realtors] let A-local-houses (turtle-set [locality-houses] of A) with [member? input-realtor local-realtors] ; create a list of the houses that will file the record ask the-record [set filed-at-houses [self] of A-local-houses] if any? A-local-houses [ ask A-local-houses [ let i position input-realtor local-realtors if [myType] of A = "mortgage" [ let relevant-records item i local-sales set relevant-records remove nobody relevant-records set relevant-records fput the-record relevant-records set local-sales replace-item i local-sales relevant-records ] if [myType] of A = "rent" [ let relevant-records item i local-rents set relevant-records remove nobody relevant-records set relevant-records fput the-record relevant-records set local-rents replace-item i local-rents relevant-records ] ] ] ] end to go if setup-a = 0 or setup-b = 0 [ type "Error: Please make sure you press 'Setup step 1' then 'Setup step 2' before running the model\n" stop ] set nDiscouraged 0 set nExit 0 set nEntry 0 set nForceOutRent 0 set nForceOutSell 0 set nForceInSell 0 set nOwnersOffered 0 set meanIncomeForceOutRent 0 ;; get mean income of owners who are forced out set meanIncomeForceOutSell 0 ;; get mean income of owners who are forced out set meanIncomeForceInSell 0 if ticks = 200 [ ; Sale market if scenario = "ltv" [ set MaxLoanToValue 60 ] if scenario = "raterise 3" [ set InterestRate 3 ] if scenario = "raterise 10" [ set InterestRate 10 ] ; both if scenario = "influx" [ set EntryRate 10 ] if scenario = "influx-rev" [ set EXitRate 5 ] if scenario = "poorentrants" [ set MeanIncome 24000 ] ; rent market? if scenario != "base-line" [type "We are at middle of simulation duration, ticks = " type ticks type ", a shock event coming in := " type scenario print ";"] ] if TicksPerYear > 0 [step] ;; do one time step (a quarter of a year?) if not any? owners [ user-message(word "Finished: no remaining people" ) stop ] ;; stop if no owners or houses left if not any? houses [ user-message(word "Finished: no remaining houses" ) stop ] ;paint-houses ;do-plots tick end to step ; reset the count of upshocked and downshocked agents reset-globals update-visualisation let n-owners count owners ;; take a count of total owners at the moment calculate-globals ; update interest rate and income ; owners living in houses let owner-occupiers owners with [ is-house? my-house ] ; all owners who are living ;type "calculate-globals | " type count owners with [length my-ownership > length repayment] type "\n" ; change in income due to income shock (all owners) ; shock related (possible) effort to change of house of owner occupiers shock-management owner-occupiers set n-owners count owners ;; take a count of total owners at the moment set owner-occupiers owners with [ is-house? my-house ] ; all owners who are living ;type "shock-management | " type count owners with [length my-ownership > length repayment] type "\n" ; owners leaving naturally owners-leave n-owners set n-owners count owners ;; take a count of total owners at the moment set owner-occupiers owners with [ is-house? my-house ] ; all owners who are living ;type "owners-leave | " type count owners with [length my-ownership > length repayment] type "\n" ; owners entering naturally new-owners n-owners set n-owners count owners ;; take a count of total owners at the moment set owner-occupiers owners with [ is-house? my-house ] ; all owners who are living ;type "new-owners | " type count owners with [length my-ownership > length repayment] type "\n" ; owners leaving due to discouragement manage-discouraged set n-owners count owners ;; take a count of total owners at the moment set owner-occupiers owners with [ is-house? my-house ] ; all owners who are living ;type "manage-discouraged | " type count owners with [length my-ownership > length repayment] type "\n" ; manage which market the agents enter to on the basis of their current occupation and budgets manage-market-participation owner-occupiers ;type "manage-market-participation | " type count owners with [length my-ownership > length repayment] type "\n" ; introduce new houses new-houses ;type "new-houses | " type count owners with [length my-ownership > length repayment] type "\n" ; trading and moving into houses trade-houses ;type "trade-houses | " type count owners with [length my-ownership > length repayment] type "\n" ;remove extras (this removes all the offers, but still keeps the houses on the market) remove-outdates ;type "remove-outdates | " type count owners with [length my-ownership > length repayment] type "\n" ; demolish old houses demolish-houses ;type "demolish-houses | " type count owners with [length my-ownership > length repayment] type "\n" ; decay the prices of houses update-prices ;type "update-prices | " type count owners with [length my-ownership > length repayment] type "\n" ; update the homeless owners and discourage those who exceed the maxhomelesslimit update-owners ;type "update-owners | " type count owners with [length my-ownership > length repayment] type "\n" update-globals end to calculate-globals ;;; Calculate Globals ;; calc interest per tick ;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;; ; add an exogenous cyclical interest rate, if required: varies around mean of ; the rate set by slider with a fixed period of 10 years set interestPerTick InterestRate / ( TicksPerYear * 100 ) ;; add cyclical variation to interest ;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;; if CycleStrength > 0 [ set interestPerTick interestPerTick * (1 + (CycleStrength / 100 ) * sin ( 36 * ticks / TicksPerYear )) ] ;; inflation drive up income ;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;; ; add inflation to salary, at inflation rate / TicksPerYear if WageRise > 0 [ ask owners [ set income income * (1 + (WageRise / ( TicksPerYear * 100 ))) ;; every tick, income stay the same or varied by inflation, income per year ] ] end to shock-management [oo] set nupShocked 0 set ndownShocked 0 ; shock frequency is used to produce a random stock not every tick but with a random frequency if random-float 1 < shock-frequency [ ;; change in the income due to shock ;; introduce income rise and fall shock to owners ;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;; let shocked-owners n-of (Shocked / 100 * count owners ) owners ;; gather Shocked% of `owner-occupiers` under `shocked-owners` let upshocked n-of (count shocked-owners / 2) shocked-owners ;; gather half of `shocked-owners` under `upshocked` ask upshocked [ set income income * (1 + income-shock / 100) ] ;; ask each `upshocked` to increase income by 20% let downshocked shocked-owners with [ not member? self upshocked ] ;; gather the non-upshocked as down shocked owners under `downshocked` ask downshocked [ set income income * (1 - income-shock / 100 ) ] ;; ask each downshocked to drop income by 20% ;; only make those calculations if the switch is off (to save computation time) if ActWhenShocked = false [ set nupShocked mean [income] of upShocked set ndownShocked mean [income] of downshocked set nUpShockedSell count upshocked with [myType = "mortgage"] set nDownShockedSell count downshocked with [myType = "mortgage"] set nUpShockedRent count upshocked with [myType = "rent"] set nDownShockedRent count downshocked with [myType = "rent"] ] ;; income-shock intriges some owners to sell / rent houses ;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;; ;; after income shock, which type of owners will sell houses due to income rise, and which type of owners sell houses due to income drop ;; only triggered if the "ActWhenShocked" is on, meaning the decision tree at shock is triggered if ActWhenShocked = true [ set nupShocked mean [income] of upShocked set ndownShocked mean [income] of downshocked set nUpShockedSell 0 ;; initialize the number of upshocked owners sell set nDownShockedSell 0 ;; initialize the number of downshocked owners sell set nUpShockedRent 0 ;; rent set nDownShockedRent 0 ;; rent let owner-occupiers-owned oo with [myType = "mortgage" and is-house? my-house] if any? owner-occupiers-owned [ ;; ask all home-owners whose house is not for sale (in setup, all home-owners don't sell houses) ask owner-occupiers-owned with [ [for-sale?] of my-house = false ][ ;; put yearly-repayment / income under `ratio` let ratio (sum repayment) * TicksPerYear / income ;; if ratio < half of Affordability %, meaning yearly-repayment is easy and owner is rich ; upshocked now go to buy-to-let market rather than upgrade their house ifelse ratio <= Affordability / 200 [ enter-market self "buy-to-let" set nUpShockedSell nUpShockedSell + 1 ;; add 1 to `nUpShocked`, meaning one more owner selling house due to income rise (not true now after adding buy-to-let, owners do not have to sell) ] [ if ratio > Affordability / 50 [ ;; if ratio > 2 * Affordability % , meaning yearly-repayment is way to heavy for owners to bear, owner is poor ;; create a list of ownerships that are not my-house let my-ownership-temp my-ownership ask my-house [set my-ownership-temp other turtle-set my-ownership-temp] ;let my-ownership-temp remove my-house (list my-ownership) ;; if I have more than one house, evict the tenant and put the house on the mortgage market ifelse count turtle-set my-ownership > 1 [ ;; find one of my ownerships that is not my-house (i.e., not where I live) and is not on the market for-sale ifelse any? my-ownership-temp with [for-sale? = false] [ ask one-of my-ownership-temp with [for-sale? = false] [ ; if there is an occupier, evict them if is-owner? my-occupier [ let my-occupier-temp my-occupier evict my-occupier-temp enter-market my-occupier-temp "rent" ] ; put the house on the mortgage market set myType "mortgage" put-on-market ] ] ;; if all my-ownership are on sale, then evict myself and join the rent market [ evict self enter-market self "rent" ] ] ;; if I have only one house, I enter the rent market after the downshock [ ; manage the ownership of my-house and put it on the market ask my-house [ set my-owner nobody set my-occupier nobody set rented-to nobody set offered-to nobody set myType "mortgage" put-on-market ] ;; ask owner's house to put on the market for sale ; evict myself and enter the rent market evict self enter-market self "rent" ] set nDownShockedSell nDownShockedSell + 1 ;; add 1 to `nDownShocked`, meaning one more owner selling house due to income drop ;set looking-for-transition true ] ] ] ] ;; find all tenants with a house let owner-occupiers-rented oo with [myType = "rent" and is-house? my-house] if any? owner-occupiers-rented [ ;; ask all the tenants to ask owner-occupiers-rented with [ [for-rent?] of my-house = false][ ;; ask all home-owners whose house is not for sale (in setup, all home-owners don't sell houses) let ratio my-rent / income ;; put yearly-repayment / income under `ratio` ifelse ratio <= Affordability / 200 [ ;; if ratio < half of Affordability %, meaning yearly-rent is easy and owner is rich ask my-house [ set myType "rent" put-on-market ] ;; enter the mortgage market to buy a house ;; modified to mortgage REVISE AS THIS MAY CAUSE ERRORS enter-market self "mortgage" ;; The house will be put on the market later as soon as the tenant finds a house to buy ;ask my-house [ put-on-market ] ;; ask owner's house to put on the market for rent set nUpShockedRent nUpShockedRent + 1 ;; add 1 to `nUpShocked`, meaning one more owner selling house due to income rise ;set looking-for-transition true ] ;; ;; if ratio > half of Affordability % [ ;; if ratio > 2 * Affordability % , meaning yearly-rent is way to heavy for owners to bear, owner is poor if ratio > Affordability / 50 [ ask my-house [ set my-occupier nobody set rented-to nobody put-on-market ] ;; ask owner's house to put on the market for rent ;; evict myself and enter the rent market evict self enter-market self "rent" set nDownShockedRent nDownShockedRent + 1 ;; add 1 to `nDownShocked`, meaning one more owner selling house due to income drop ;set looking-for-transition true ] ] ] ] ] ] end to owners-leave [n-owners] ;; owners die or leave naturally ;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;; ;; every tick, a proportion of owners put their houses on the market and leave town let owners-rent owners with [ is-house? my-house and myType = "rent" ] let n min (list count owners-rent (ExitRate * n-owners / 200)) ask n-of n owners-rent [ ;; amange the tenancy of my-house ask my-house [ set rented-to nobody set my-occupier nobody set offered-to nobody put-on-market ] set nExit nExit + 1 die ] let owners-mortgage owners with [ is-house? my-house and myType = "mortgage" ] ask n-of (ExitRate * n-owners / 200) owners-mortgage [ ;; ask randomly select (ExitRate% of all owners) number of home-owners to do ... ;; Modified to consider cases where a landlord leaves, leading to the eviction of all the tenant ; find my-ownership excluding my-house let my-ownership-temp turtle-set my-ownership ask my-house [set my-ownership-temp other turtle-set my-ownership-temp] ask my-ownership-temp [ ;; If someone is occupying one of my owned houses, evict them if is-owner? my-occupier [ let my-occupier-temp my-occupier evict my-occupier-temp enter-market my-occupier-temp "rent" ] ;; manage the ownership of the house set my-owner nobody set my-occupier nobody set rented-to nobody set offered-to nobody ;; put the house on the morgage market (now without an owner as the owner left) set myType "mortgage" put-on-market ] ;; manage the ownership of my-house (i.e, the one I live in) ask my-house [ set my-owner nobody set my-occupier nobody set rented-to nobody set offered-to nobody ;; put the house on the morgage market (now without an owner as the owner left) set myType "mortgage" put-on-market ] set nExit nExit + 1 die ] end to new-owners [n-owners] ;; new comers ;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;; ;; a fixed number of new comers enter the city repeat EntryRate * n-owners / 100 [ ; create-owners EntryRate * n-owners / 100 [ ;; create a fixed proportion of new owners create-owners 1 [ ;; assign type before assigning income if new-owner-type = "random" [ let t random 2 ifelse t = 0 [set myType "mortgage"] [set myType "rent"] ] if new-owner-type = "all-rent" [set myType "rent"] if new-owner-type = "all-owned" [set myType "mortgage"] if new-owner-type = "contextualized" [ ;; Modified to my-occupier instead of my-owner for representing whether the house is vacant or not let x count houses with [myType = "mortgage" and my-occupier = nobody] ; count empty owned houses let xx count owners with [mytype = "mortgage" and my-house = nobody] ; owned owners no house let y count houses with [myType = "rent" and my-occupier = nobody] ; count empty rent houses let yy count owners with [mytype = "rent" and my-house = nobody] ; rent owners no house let diff1 x - xx ; if x = 3 and xx = 2, then diff is +ve, meaning owned houses are more than demand and vice versa let diff2 y - yy ; if y = 3 and yy = 2, then diff is +ve, meaning rent houses are more than demand and vice versa if diff1 <= 0 and diff2 >= 0 [set mytype "rent"] ; owned hosues are less and rent hosues are more/equal than demand, set type rent if diff1 <= 0 and diff2 <= 0 [ let t random 2 ifelse t = 0 [set myType "mortgage"] [set myType "rent"] ] ; owned houses are less and rent hosues are also less, random if diff1 >= 0 and diff2 >= 0 [ let t random 2 ifelse t = 0 [set myType "mortgage"] [set myType "rent"] ] ; both owned and rent houses are more than demand, random if diff1 >= 0 and diff2 <= 0 [set myType "mortgage"] ; owned houses are more/equal than demand and rent houses are less, set type owned ] set color gray ;; gray set size 0.7 ;; make them visible but not too big assign-income ;; initialize income and capital ;let rent income * Affordability / (ticksPerYear * 100 ) ;; create rent ;set my-rent rent ;set mortgage income * Affordability / ( interestPerTick * ticksPerYear * 100 ) ;; create mortgage ;let deposit mortgage * ( 100 / MaxLoanToValue - 1 ) ;; create deposit ;set repayment mortgage * interestPerTick / (1 - ( 1 + interestPerTick ) ^ ( - MortgageDuration * TicksPerYear )) set mortgage (list) set mortgage-initial (list) set repayment (list) set income-rent (list) set surplus-rent (list) set rate (list) set rate-duration (list) set mortgage-duration (list) ;; assign the ownership and my-house of the new comer set my-ownership (list) set propensity random-float 1.0 set my-house nobody set made-offer-on nobody ;; Enter the market on the absis of myType (i.e., either "mortgage" or "rent") enter-market self myType hide-turtle ;; new comers have no houses, so they are nowhere to be seen set nEntry nEntry + 1 ] ] end to manage-discouraged ;; discouraged-leave ;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;; ;; if an owner without home for too long, it will move out of city if maxHomelessPeriod > 0 [ ; meaning if this value is set ask owners with [ not is-house? my-house ] [ ;; ask each owner without a house set homeless homeless + 1 ;; count the owner's homeless duration if homeless > maxHomelessPeriod [ ;; if homeless duration is beyond limit, this owner will move out of the city (agent die) set nDiscouraged nDiscouraged + 1 die ] ] ] ;; if an `owner` is trying to invest on the BTL market for too long, it gets discouraged ;; if maximumPeriodBTL is higher than 0 - meaning the variable is set if onMarketPeriodBTL > 0 [ ask owners with [on-market-type = "buy-to-let"] [ if time-on-market >= onMarketPeriodBTL [ ;;type self type " | time-on-maket = " type time-on-market type "\n" set on-market? false set on-market-type nobody set time-on-market 0 set on-cooldown? true set on-cooldown-type "buy-to-let" set time-on-cooldown 0 ] ] ] ;; if maximumPeriodMortgage is higher than 0 - meaning the variable is set if onMarketPeriodMortgage > 0 [ ask owners with [on-market-type = "mortgage"] [ if time-on-market >= onMarketPeriodMortgage [ ;;type self type " Mortgage | time-on-maket = " type time-on-market type "\n" set on-market? false set on-market-type nobody set time-on-market 0 set on-cooldown? true set on-cooldown-type "mortgage" set time-on-cooldown 0 ] ] ] end ;; manage well-off and not well-off turtles of type 'owners' to manage-market-participation [occupiers] ;;; manage not-well-off owners (i.e., those not being able to pay repayments or rent) ;; evict mortgage and rent ; poorer owners with myType = mortgage let not-well-off-mortgage occupiers with [on-market? = false and is-house? my-house and myType = "mortgage" and (sum (repayment) * TicksPerYear) > (eviction-threshold-mortgage * (income + (sum (income-rent) * TicksPerYear)) * Affordability / 100)] ; poorer owners with myType = mortgage and only one house (these will be evicted) let not-well-off-mortgage-evict not-well-off-mortgage with [count turtle-set my-ownership <= 1] ; poorer owners with myType = rent (these will always be evicted) let not-well-off-rent occupiers with [on-market? = false and is-house? my-house and myType = "rent" and (my-rent * TicksPerYear) > (eviction-threshold-rent * income * Affordability / 100)] ; create a set of all the owners that will be evicted let not-well-off-evict (turtle-set not-well-off-mortgage-evict not-well-off-rent) ; evict and enter rent market if any? not-well-off-evict [ evict not-well-off-evict enter-market not-well-off-evict "rent" ] ;; force mortgage with more than one ownership to sell one of his ownership ; poorer owners with myType = mortgage and mare than one house (these will stay and will only sell one of their houses) and without any house already on sale (if a house is on sale, then this owner is waiting for the sale to happen to make profit and stop being not-well-off let not-well-off-mortgage-stay not-well-off-mortgage with [count turtle-set my-ownership > 1 and count ( (turtle-set my-ownership) with [for-sale? = true] ) = 0 and count ( (turtle-set my-ownership) with [for-rent? = true] ) = 0] ; force-sell, but do not go into any market (the seller is not trying to buy any house) if any? not-well-off-mortgage-stay [ force-sell-rent not-well-off-mortgage-stay ] ;; well off mortgage and rent let well-off-mortgage occupiers with [ on-market? = false and is-house? my-house and myType = "mortgage" and (capital >= (median (mortgage)) * ( 1 - (MaxLoanToValue / 100) )) and ( ((income + (sum(income-rent) * TicksPerYear) * Affordability / 100) - (sum repayment) * TicksPerYear) > (median(repayment) * TicksPerYear) ) ] ;; sale price * MaxLTV / 100 --> the expected mortgage value ;; sale price * (1 - (MaxLTV / 100)) --> the expected deposit let well-off-rent occupiers with [ on-market? = false and is-house? my-house and myType = "rent" and capital >= (savings-to-rent-threshold * [sale-price] of my-house * (1 - (MaxLoanToValue / 100)) ) and ( (income * Affordability / 100) > [sale-price] of my-house * (MaxLoanToValue / 100) * interestPerTick / (1 - ( 1 + interestPerTick ) ^ ( - MortgageDuration * TicksPerYear)) ) ] ; assure no agent is counted twice as well-off and not-well-off ask not-well-off-mortgage [set well-off-mortgage other well-off-mortgage] ask not-well-off-rent [set well-off-rent other well-off-rent] if any? well-off-mortgage [ ;; assure the ones joining the BTL market: (1) have the propensity to become investors; and (2) are not on-cooldown ask well-off-mortgage [ if propensity > (1 - investors) and on-cooldown? = false [enter-market self "buy-to-let"] ] ] if any? well-off-rent [ ask well-off-rent [ if propensity > (1 - upgrade-tenancy) [enter-market self "rent"] if propensity <= (1 - upgrade-tenancy) and on-cooldown? = false [enter-market self "mortgage"] ] ] ;; manage globals ifelse any? not-well-off-mortgage [ ;set nEvictedMortgageOneHouse count not-well-off-mortgage with [count my-ownership = 1] ;set nEvictedMortgageMoreHouses count not-well-off-mortgage with [count my-ownership > 1] ] [ set nEvictedMortgageOneHouse 0 set nEvictedMortgageMoreHouses 0 ] ifelse any? not-well-off-mortgage-evict [set nEvictedMortgage count not-well-off-mortgage-evict] [set nEvictedMortgage 0] ifelse any? not-well-off-evict [set nEnterMarketRent count not-well-off-evict set nHomeless count not-well-off-evict] [set nEnterMarketRent 0 set nHomeless 0] ifelse any? well-off-rent [set nEnterMarketMortgage count well-off-rent] [set nEnterMarketMortgage 0] ifelse any? well-off-mortgage [set nEnterMarketBuyToLet count well-off-mortgage] [set nEnterMarketBuyToLet 0] ifelse any? not-well-off-mortgage-stay [set nForceSell count not-well-off-mortgage-stay] [set nForceSell 0] ifelse any? not-well-off-mortgage-evict [set meanIncomeEvictedMortgage mean [income] of not-well-off-mortgage-evict] [set meanIncomeEvictedMortgage 0] ifelse any? not-well-off-rent [ set nEvictedRent count not-well-off-rent set meanIncomeEvictedRent mean [income] of not-well-off-rent ] [ set nEvictedRent 0 set meanIncomeEvictedRent 0 ] end ;; evict occupiers from their houses (rented or mortgaged) to evict [occupiers] ask occupiers [ ;; if I am occupying a "mortgage" house (i.e., I own my house and live in it) if [myType] of my-house = "mortgage" [ ;; manage my-house ownership parameters ask my-house [ set my-occupier nobody set my-owner nobody set rented-to nobody ;; put the house in the "mortgage" market, now without an owner as the owner is being evicted put-on-market ] ;; find all my-ownership without including my-house let my-ownership-temp turtle-set my-ownership ask my-house [set my-ownership-temp other turtle-set my-ownership-temp] ;; address my-ownership without addressing my-house ask turtle-set my-ownership-temp [ ;; If the ownership is a rented property if myType = "rent" [ ;; and the ownership has an occupier if is-owner? my-occupier [ ;; evict the occupier let my-occupier-temp my-occupier evict my-occupier-temp enter-market my-occupier-temp "rent" ] ;; manage ownership parameters and put the house on the mortgage market (with no owner) set myType "mortgage" set my-occupier nobody set my-owner nobody set rented-to nobody put-on-market ] ;; if my-ownership is a mortgage house (meaning it is on-sale? on the mortgage market) if myType = "mortgage" [ ;; address the ownership parameters set my-occupier nobody set my-owner nobody set rented-to nobody set offered-to nobody ;; put the ownership back on the market, but now without an owner put-on-market ] ] ;; assure the owner being evicted now has no house and no ownership set my-house nobody set my-ownership (list) set mortgage (list) set repayment (list) set income-rent (list) set surplus-rent (list) ;; assure the homeless count is set back to 0 set homeless 0 stop ] ;; if I am living in a rented house if [myType] of my-house = "rent" [ ;; put my house back on the rented market without an occupier ask my-house [ set my-occupier nobody set rented-to nobody put-on-market ] ;; assure the landlord decreases their income-rent due to the eviction of a tenant let landlord [my-owner] of my-house if is-owner? landlord [ let index-temp position my-house [my-ownership] of landlord ask landlord [ set income-rent replace-item index-temp income-rent 0 set surplus-rent replace-item index-temp surplus-rent (0 - item index-temp repayment) ] ] ;; assure I now have no house and set homeless to 0 set my-house nobody set homeless 0 ] hide-turtle ] end to force-sell-rent [sellers] ask sellers [ ;; find all the ownership that is not the house I live in (this is to avoid selling the house I occupy and becoming homeless) let my-ownership-temp turtle-set my-ownership let surplus-rent-temp remove-item 0 surplus-rent let house-to-sell nobody let house-to-rent nobody ask my-house [set my-ownership-temp other turtle-set my-ownership-temp] (ifelse any? my-ownership-temp with [for-rent? = true and on-market-period >= maxForRentPeriodPoorLandlord] [ set house-to-sell one-of my-ownership-temp with [for-rent? = true and on-market-period >= maxForRentPeriodPoorLandlord] ] ;; if no houses are offered for rent (all occupied), offer the house with the lowest rent profit on the rent market again not any? my-ownership-temp with [for-rent? = true] [ ;type self type " | surplus-rent = " type surplus-rent type " | my-ownership = " type my-ownership type "\n" let index-temp position (min surplus-rent-temp) surplus-rent set house-to-rent item index-temp my-ownership ] ) if any? turtle-set house-to-sell [ ;; manage house to sell ask house-to-sell [ if is-owner? my-occupier [ let my-occupier-temp my-occupier evict my-occupier-temp enter-market my-occupier-temp "rent" ] set myType "mortgage" put-on-market ] ] if any? turtle-set house-to-rent [ ;; manage house to rent ask house-to-rent [ if is-owner? my-occupier [ let my-occupier-temp my-occupier evict my-occupier-temp enter-market my-occupier-temp "rent" ] set myType "rent" put-on-market ] ] ] end ;; force seller to put one of their ownership on the amrket (only triggered when a landlord is not well-off and needs to sell) to force-sell [sellers] ask sellers [ ;; find all the ownership that is not the house I live in (this is to avoid selling the house I occupy and becoming homeless) let my-ownership-temp turtle-set my-ownership let house-to-sell nobody ask my-house [set my-ownership-temp other turtle-set my-ownership-temp] ;; if there is a house that is not for sale and is not rented, sell that house ifelse any? my-ownership-temp with [for-sale? = false and rented-to = nobody] [ set house-to-sell one-of my-ownership-temp with [for-sale? = false and rented-to = nobody] ] ;; if all the houses are rented, check the one that will yield the highest capital and sell it [ ;; start from index 1 as the first item in the list is always my-house let i 1 ;; set a list with one element 0 (reflecting no benefit from selling own house) let surplus (list 0) ;; loop into the ownership to create a list of surplus values while [i < length my-ownership] [ let mortgage-temp item i mortgage let price-temp [sale-price] of item i my-ownership set surplus lput (price-temp - mortgage-temp) surplus set i i + 1 ] ;; select the ownership leading to the highest surplus let index-temp position max(surplus) surplus set house-to-sell item index-temp my-ownership ] if any? turtle-set house-to-sell [ ;; amange ask house-to-sell [ if is-owner? my-occupier [ let my-occupier-temp my-occupier evict my-occupier-temp enter-market my-occupier-temp "rent" ] set myType "mortgage" put-on-market ] ] ] end ;; enter the market for mortgage or rent to enter-market [candidates market-type] ask candidates [ set on-cooldown? false set time-on-cooldown 0 set time-on-market 0 set on-market? true set on-market-type market-type ] end to new-houses ;; some new houses are built, and put up for sale ;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;; repeat count houses * HouseConstructionRate / 100 [ ;; build a fixed proportion of new houses if any? patches with [ not any? houses-here ] [build-house "mortgage"] ] reset-empty-houses ; set sale and rent price ask houses with [ quality = 0 ] [ ;; ask each house with quality = 0 let houses-around-here other houses in-radius Locality ;; put ( the other houses which are within the radius circle where the current house is the center ) under `houses-around-here` set quality ifelse-value any? houses-around-here ;; if `houses-around-here` exist, then return first value to `quality` [ mean [ quality ] of houses-around-here ] [ 1 ] ;; if `houses-around-here` exist, then return second value to `quality` if quality > 3 [set quality 3] ;; quality has upper limit to be 3 if quality < 0.3 [set quality 0.3] ;; quality has lower limit to be 0.3 ] end to trade-houses let houses-for-sale houses with [ for-sale? = true] ;; find all the houses for sale ;; Consider for-rent? let houses-for-rent houses with [ for-rent? = true] value-hosues houses-for-sale houses-for-rent ;; we check here whether houses are on-market or not (as this is a decision that should have been premade by the owner) let buyers owners with [ on-market? = true ] ;; put all owners who don't have a house or whose houses on sale under `buyers` make-offers buyers houses-for-sale houses-for-rent ;; if a deal is made, then households will move in and out of houses set moves 0 ;; the number of households moving in this step ;; Removed the condition --> not is-house? my-house (as in this version, traders are any buyers on the market that made an offer regardless of my-house) ask buyers with [ is-house? made-offer-on and on-market? = true] [ ;; ask buyers who have no houses and made offer on a house ;; self is buyer, and check whether the buy-sell chain is intact or not if follow-chain self self [ ;move-house ;; if intact, deal is made, and households move out and into houses, count the number of moves move-house self ] ] end to value-hosues [houses-for-sale houses-for-rent] ;; value-houses ;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;; ;; initially, house sale-price is added up by mortgage and deposit in setup ;; once a house put on sale, sale-price, my-realtor (house) , average-price (realtor), median price for all houses on sale, are to be updated. ;; because sellers will ask all local-realtors to value the house again and the seller will choose my-realtor again to update the sale-price if any? houses-for-sale [ ;; if these houses exist ask houses-for-sale with [ date-for-sale = ticks ] [ ;; ask each of those houses which are just on sale from now on set my-realtor max-one-of turtle-set local-realtors [ valuation myself ] ;; set the realtor gives the current house the highest valuation to be my-realtor set sale-price [ valuation myself ] of my-realtor ;; take the highest value valuation price as sale-price of the current house ] ;; update the average-price of each realtor ask realtors [ ;; ask each realtor let my-houses-for-sale houses-for-sale with [ member? myself local-realtors and myType = "mortgage"] ;; get all houses under this realtor if any? my-houses-for-sale [ set average-price median [ sale-price ] of my-houses-for-sale ] ;; if these houses exist, take their median price as the realtor's average-price for its all houses ] set medianPriceOfHousesForSale median [sale-price] of houses-for-sale ] if any? houses-for-rent [ ;; if these houses exist ask houses-for-rent with [ date-for-rent = ticks ] [ ;; ask each of those houses which are just on sale from now on set my-realtor max-one-of turtle-set local-realtors [ valuation myself ] ;; set the realtor gives the current house the highest valuation to be my-realtor ;; Modified to rent-price set rent-price [ valuation myself ] of my-realtor ;; take the highest value valuation price as sale-price of the current house ] ;; update the average-price of each realtor ask realtors [ ;; ask each realtor let my-houses-for-rent houses-for-rent with [ member? myself local-realtors and myType = "rent"] ;; get all houses under this realtor ;; Modified to median of rent-price if any? my-houses-for-rent [ set average-rent median [ rent-price ] of my-houses-for-rent ] ;; if these houses exist, take their median price as the realtor's average-price for its all houses ] ;; Modified to rent-price set medianPriceOfHousesForRent median [rent-price] of houses-for-rent ;; update median price of all houses on sale ] end to-report valuation [ property ] ;; realtor procedure ;; valuation house price by realtor ;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;; let normalization 1 ;; create a local variable normalization let multiplier [ quality ] of property * (1 + RealtorOptimism / 100) * normalization ;; create a multiplier for final finish of valuation price ;; component of multiplier include quality, optimism, normalization let old-price [sale-price] of property ;; set the input house's sale-price as old price let old-rent [rent-price] of property let new-price 0 ;; create a new price variable with 0 value let new-rent 0 let ptype [myType] of property ; if calculate-wealth? is true, use the saved lists of houses and records in houses (saves run time) ifelse calculate-wealth? = true [ let i position self [local-realtors] of property let local-sales-sold item i [local-sales] of property let local-sales-rent item i [local-rents] of property let plocality [locality-houses] of property if ptype = "mortgage" [ ; owned ifelse any? turtle-set local-sales-sold ;; if the local-sales exist [ set new-price median [ selling-price ] of turtle-set local-sales-sold ] ;; assign the median price of all record houses to new-price [ let local-houses turtle-set filter [h -> [myType] of h = "mortgage"] plocality ;; if no local-sales exist, take neighboring houses around the current realtor under `local-houses` ifelse any? local-houses ;; if local-houses exist [set new-price median [sale-price] of local-houses ;; set the median price of all local-houses to be new-price ] [set new-price average-price ] ;; otherwise set average-price of the realtor to be new-price (is realtor's average-price updated every tick?) ] ] ; not owned if ptype = "rent"[ ifelse any? turtle-set local-sales-rent ;; if the local-sales exist ;; modified to new-rent and rent-price [ set new-rent median [ renting-price ] of turtle-set local-sales-rent ] ;; assign the median price of all record houses to new-price [ let local-houses turtle-set filter [h -> [myType] of h = "rent"] plocality;; if no local-sales exist, take neighboring houses around the current realtor under `local-houses` ifelse any? local-houses ;; if local-houses exist [set new-rent median [rent-price] of local-houses ;; set the median price of all local-houses to be new-price ] [set new-rent average-rent ] ;; otherwise set average-price of the realtor to be new-price (is realtor's average-price updated every tick?) ] ] ] ; if calculate-wealth? = false, find the locality houses and the records while evaluating [ let local-sales-sold (turtle-set sales-sold) with [ the-house != nobody and ( [distance property ] of the-house ) < Locality and selling-price > 0] ;; new-version ;; under realtor context, sales is a list of records, use `turtle-set` force list into an agentset to use with, each record has property of the-house ;; get all the sales (lists of records) whose houses are sold and those sold-houses are neighboring to the input house under `local-sales` let local-sales-rent (turtle-set sales-rent) with [ the-house != nobody and ( [distance property ] of the-house ) < Locality and renting-price > 0] ;; new-version if ptype = "mortgage" [ ; owned ifelse any? local-sales-sold ;; if the local-sales exist [ set new-price median [ selling-price ] of local-sales-sold ] ;; assign the median price of all record houses to new-price [ let local-houses houses with [ distance myself <= Locality and myType = "mortagage" ];; if no local-sales exist, take neighboring houses around the current realtor under `local-houses` ifelse any? local-houses ;; if local-houses exist [set new-price median [sale-price] of local-houses ;; set the median price of all local-houses to be new-price ] [set new-price average-price ] ;; otherwise set average-price of the realtor to be new-price (is realtor's average-price updated every tick?) ] ] ; not owned if ptype = "rent"[ ifelse any? local-sales-rent ;; if the local-sales exist ;; modified to new-rent and rent-price [ set new-rent median [ renting-price ] of local-sales-rent ] ;; assign the median price of all record houses to new-price [ let local-houses houses with [ distance myself <= Locality and myType = "rent" ];; if no local-sales exist, take neighboring houses around the current realtor under `local-houses` ifelse any? local-houses ;; if local-houses exist [set new-rent median [rent-price] of local-houses ;; set the median price of all local-houses to be new-price ] [set new-rent average-rent ] ;; otherwise set average-price of the realtor to be new-price (is realtor's average-price updated every tick?) ] ] ] let ratio 0 let threshold 2 ;; a base line for ratio if pType = "mortgage" [ if old-price < 5000 [ report multiplier * new-price ] ;; if current sale-price is too low, just accept multiplier * new-price as valuation price set ratio new-price / old-price ifelse ratio > threshold ;; [ set new-price threshold * old-price ] ;; if new-price is more than twice old-price, make new-price twice of old-price. " [ if ratio < 1 / threshold [ set new-price old-price / threshold ] ] ;; if new-price is less than half of old-price, make new-price half of old-price. report multiplier * new-price ;; finally report multiplier * new-price" "." ] if pType = "rent" [ if old-rent < 500 [ report multiplier * new-rent ] ;; if current sale-price is too low, just accept multiplier * new-price as valuation price set ratio new-rent / old-rent ifelse ratio > threshold ;; [ set new-rent threshold * old-rent ] ;; if new-rent is more than twice old-rent, make new-rent twice of old-rent. " [ if ratio < 1 / threshold [ set new-rent old-rent / threshold ] ] ;; if new-rent is less than half of old-rent, make new-rent half of old-rent. report multiplier * new-rent ;; finally report multiplier * new-rent" "." ] end to make-offers [buyers houses-for-sale houses-for-rent] ;; make an offer ;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;; ;; Owners make an offer based on the market type they are in ; start with "mortgage" | these "owners" want to buy a house to reside in ask buyers with [ on-market? = true and on-market-type = "mortgage" ] [ make-offer-mortgage houses-for-sale ] ; second, address "buy-to-let" | these buyers already have a house and they are well-off enough to buy another one ask buyers with [ on-market? = true and on-market-type = "buy-to-let" ] [ make-offer-mortgage houses-for-sale ] ; third, address "rent" | these buyers do not own a house and want to become a tenant ask buyers with [ on-market? = true and on-market-type = "rent" ] [ make-offer-rent houses-for-rent ] set nOwnersOffered count owners with [is-house? made-offer-on ] end to make-offer-mortgage [ houses-for-sale ] ;; increment the time on market counter by 1 (applied for all market types) set time-on-market time-on-market + 1 if on-market-type = "mortgage" [ ;; use current income, Affordability, interestPerTick to calc new-mortgage let new-repayment (income * Affordability / (ticksPerYear * 100)) let new-mortgage (1 - ( 1 + interestPerTick ) ^ ( - MortgageDuration * TicksPerYear )) * new-repayment / interestPerTick ;set deposit ( new-mortgage * ( 100 / MaxLoanToValue - 1 ) ) ;; create deposit ;; use current income, Affordability, interestPerTick to calc new-mortgage ;let new-mortgage income * Affordability / ( interestPerTick * ticksPerYear * 100 ) ;; actual budget for buying a house == new-mortgage - duty or tax we get back let budget new-mortgage - stamp-duty-land-tax new-mortgage ;; buyer use capital to pay for new deposit let deposit capital ;; under the context of owners, if it has a house, update new deposit with new deposit + sale-price of current house - current mortgage of my-house if is-house? my-house [ let index-temp position my-house my-ownership if [for-sale?] of my-house = true [set deposit deposit + ([ sale-price ] of my-house - item index-temp mortgage) ] ] ;; upperbound = the maximum amount afford to offer on a house = new mortgage - duty-back + new deposit let upperbound budget + deposit ;; if mortgage is less than house value => (MaxLoanToValue/100 < 100/100 ) ;; update upperbound with the less between two similar values if MaxLoanToValue < 100 [set upperbound min ( list (budget + deposit) (deposit / ( 1 - MaxLoanToValue / 100 )) ) ] ;; if I cannot purchase, but I have a house, get out of the market for this round and assure any offers made to my house are removed if upperbound < 0 and is-house? my-house[ set on-market? false set on-market-type nobody ask my-house [ set for-sale? false set for-rent? false if is-owner? offered-to [ask offered-to [set made-offer-on nobody]] set offered-to nobody set rented-to nobody ] stop ] ;; if I cannot purchase and I do not have a house, stay on the market (i.e., do nothing) if upperbound < 0 and not is-house? my-house [stop] ;; set lowerbound to be 70% of upperbound let lowerbound upperbound * 0.7 ;; get the current owner's my-house under `current-house` let current-house my-house let current-ownership turtle-set my-ownership ;; from all the houses on sale, get those ;; without offer ;; and sale-prices within upperbound ;; and sale-prices greater than lowerbound ;; and the house is not current house, assinged into `interesting-houses` let interesting-houses houses-for-sale with [ not is-owner? offered-to and sale-price <= upperbound and sale-price > lowerbound and self != current-house ] ;; assure buyers on mortgage market do not make offers on their own houses if any? current-ownership [ask current-ownership [set interesting-houses other interesting-houses]] ;; if number of interesting-houses > BuyerSearchLength (number of houses buyers willing to see) ;; then select randomly BuyerSearchLength number of interesting-houses if count interesting-houses > BuyerSearchLength [set interesting-houses n-of BuyerSearchLength interesting-houses with [sale-price < (budget + deposit)]] ;; if interesting-houses exist if any? interesting-houses [ ;; find the house with the maximum sale-price of interesting-houses and assigned to `property` a local-var let property max-one-of interesting-houses [ sale-price ] ;; if the `property` is a house if is-house? property [ ;; assign the current owner as `offered-to` under the context of `property` ;; set `ticks` to be `offer-date` (house property) ask property [ set offered-to myself set offer-date ticks ] ;; assign `property` (a house ) to owner's property `made-offer-on` set made-offer-on property ] ] ] if on-market-type = "buy-to-let" [ ;; use current income, Affordability, interestPerTick to calc new-mortgage let new-repayment (income * Affordability / (ticksPerYear * 100)) let new-mortgage (1 - ( 1 + interestPerTick ) ^ ( - MortgageDuration * TicksPerYear )) * new-repayment / interestPerTick ;let new-mortgage income * Affordability / ( interestPerTick * ticksPerYear * 100 ) ;; actual budget for buying a house == new-mortgage - duty or tax we get back let budget new-mortgage - stamp-duty-land-tax new-mortgage ;; buyer use capital to pay for new deposit let deposit capital ;; upperbound = the maximum amount afford to offer on a house = new mortgage - duty-back + new deposit let upperbound budget + deposit ;; if mortgage is less than house value => (MaxLoanToValue/100 < 100/100 ) ;; update upperbound with the less between two similar values if MaxLoanToValue < 100 [set upperbound min ( list (budget + deposit ) ( deposit / ( 1 - MaxLoanToValue / 100 ))) ] ;; under the context of owners, if it has a house, update new deposit with new deposit + sale-price of current house - current mortgage if upperbound < 0 [ set on-market? false set on-market-type nobody stop ] ;; set lowerbound to be 70% of upperbound let lowerbound upperbound * 0.7 ;; get the current owner's my-house under `current-house` let current-house my-house ;; get the current owner's my-ownership under 'current-ownership' let current-ownership turtle-set my-ownership ;; from all the houses on sale, get those ;; without offer ;; and sale-prices within upperbound ;; and sale-prices greater than lowerbound ;; and the house is not current house, assinged into `interesting-houses` let interesting-houses houses-for-sale with [ not is-owner? offered-to and sale-price <= upperbound and sale-price > lowerbound and self != current-house ] ;; assure buyers on buy-to let market do not make offers on their own houses if any? current-ownership [ask current-ownership [set interesting-houses other interesting-houses]] ;; if number of interesting-houses > BuyerSearchLength (number of houses buyers willing to see) ;; then select randomly BuyerSearchLength number of interesting-houses if count interesting-houses > BuyerSearchLength [set interesting-houses n-of BuyerSearchLength interesting-houses with [sale-price < (budget + deposit)]] ;; if interesting-houses exist if any? interesting-houses [ ;; find the house with the maximum sale-price of interesting-houses and assigned to `property` a local-var let property max-one-of interesting-houses [ sale-price ] ;; if the `property` is a house if is-house? property [ ;; assign the current owner as `offered-to` under the context of `property` ;; set `ticks` to be `offer-date` (house property) ask property [ set offered-to myself set offer-date ticks ] ;; assign `property` (a house ) to owner's property `made-offer-on` set made-offer-on property ] ] ] end to make-offer-rent [ houses-for-rent ] ;; increment the time on market counter by 1 set time-on-market time-on-market + 1 let new-rent income * Affordability / ( ticksPerYear * 100 );; use current income, Affordability, interestPerTick to calc new-mortgage let budget new-rent let upperbound budget ;; upperbound = the maximum amount afford to offer on a house = new mortgage - duty-back + new deposit ; if upperbound < 0 [ ;; if upperbound is less than 0, meaning the owner has negative equity (how it is possible?) ; ;; modified to for-rent ; ask my-house [ set for-rent? false ] ;; pull the house back from market, and stay in the house ; stop ;; this owner stop performing the rest action below ; ] let lowerbound upperbound * 0.7 ;; set lowerbound to be 70% of upperbound let current-house my-house ;; get the current owner's my-house under `current-house` let interesting-houses houses-for-rent with [ ;; from all the houses on sale, get those not is-owner? offered-to and ;; without offer rent-price <= upperbound and ;; and sale-prices within upperbound rent-price > lowerbound and ;; and sale-prices greater than lowerbound self != current-house ] ;; and the house is not current house, assinged into `interesting-houses` if count interesting-houses > BuyerSearchLength [ ;; if number of interesting-houses > BuyerSearchLength (number of houses buyers willing to see) set interesting-houses n-of BuyerSearchLength interesting-houses ;; then select randomly BuyerSearchLength number of interesting-houses ] if any? interesting-houses [ ;; if interesting-houses exist let property max-one-of interesting-houses [ rent-price ] ;; find the house with the maximum sale-price of interesting-houses and assigned to `property` a local-var if is-house? property [ ;; if the `property` is a house ask property [ ;; ask this house set offered-to myself ;; assign the current owner as `offered-to` under the context of `property` set offer-date ticks ;; set `ticks` to be `offer-date` (house property) ] set made-offer-on property ;; assign `property` (a house ) to owner's property `made-offer-on` ] ] end to-report stamp-duty-land-tax [ cost ] ;; stamp duty land tax ('stamp duty') is 1% for sales over $150K, 3% over $250K, 4% over $500K, (see http://www.hmrc.gov.uk/so/rates/index.htm ) if StampDuty? [ if cost > 500000 [ report 0.04 * cost ] if cost > 250000 [ report 0.02 * cost ] if cost > 150000 [ report 0.01 * cost ] ] report 0 end ;; function can now be called anywhere (not owner specific) to-report follow-chain [buyer-tenant first-link] ;; If the buyer-tenant did not make any offer or is not on the market in the first place, report a false chain if not is-house? [made-offer-on] of buyer-tenant [report false] if [on-market?] of buyer-tenant = false [report false] ;; If the buyer is on the mortgage market if [on-market-type] of buyer-tenant = "mortgage" or [on-market-type] of buyer-tenant = "buy-to-let" [ let buyer buyer-tenant let seller [my-owner] of made-offer-on ;; If there is no seller (i.e., house not owned), report a true chain if not is-owner? seller [report true] ;; If the seller has more than one house (i.e., seller does not need to find another house to buy before the transaction), report a true chain if count turtle-set [my-ownership] of seller > 1 [report true] if buyer = seller [report true] if seller = first-link [report true] ;; Else, meaning, if the seller has one house, check if the seller has a confirmed house to buy before making the transaction report follow-chain seller first-link ] if [on-market-type] of buyer-tenant = "rent" [ let tenant buyer-tenant let house-made-offer-on [made-offer-on] of tenant let landlord [my-owner] of house-made-offer-on ;; If there is no occupier (i.e., the house is vacant and can be directly rented), report true chain if not is-owner? [my-occupier] of house-made-offer-on [report true] if first-link = [my-occupier] of house-made-offer-on [report true] ;; Else, meaning, if there is an occupier, check if that occupier found anouther house to rent or not before making the transaction report follow-chain [my-occupier] of house-made-offer-on first-link ] end to move-house [buyer-tenant] let new-house [made-offer-on] of buyer-tenant if not (is-house? new-house) [stop] if on-market-type = "mortgage" or on-market-type = "buy-to-let" [ ;; define buyer and seller let buyer buyer-tenant let seller [my-owner] of new-house ;; address the surplus of the seller if they exist if is-owner? seller [manage-surplus-seller seller new-house] ;; address the surplus of the buyer (includes managing capital, mortgage and repayments ;; manage the budget/capital of buyer manage-surplus-buyer buyer ;; manage the ownership parameters of the buyer manage-ownership-buyer buyer ;; if there is a seller, manage their ownership parameters if is-owner? seller [ manage-ownership-seller seller new-house ] ] if on-market-type = "rent"[ ;; define tenant and landlord let tenant buyer-tenant let landlord [my-owner] of new-house ; manage the budget/income of the landlord manage-surplus-landlord landlord new-house ; manage the budget of the tenant manage-surplus-tenant tenant ; manage the ownership parameters of the tenant manage-ownership-tenant tenant ] end to manage-ownership-tenant [tenant] let new-house [made-offer-on] of tenant let house-temp my-house ask tenant [ ;; if seller is an owner, calc the rent and assign. ;; record the rent transaction hatch-records 1 [ hide-turtle move-to new-house set date ticks set date ticks set the-house new-house set selling-price 0 set renting-price [rent-price] of new-house ;ask [ my-realtor ] of new-house [ file-record myself ] file-record ([my-realtor] of new-house) (self) ] ;; manage the parameters of the renter show-turtle move-to new-house set homeless 0 set time-on-market 0 set on-cooldown? false set time-on-cooldown 0 set myType "rent" set my-house new-house set my-rent [ rent-price ] of new-house set my-ownership (list) set made-offer-on nobody set on-market? false set on-market-type nobody ; manage the parameters of the new-house ask new-house [ ;; make sure the occupier unregisters the house from their my-house parameter ;; the occupier will later rent another house (this is checked within the follow-chain function) if is-owner? my-occupier [ask my-occupier [set my-house nobody]] set my-occupier myself set rented-to myself set for-sale? false set for-rent? false ] ; manage the parameters of the old house if is-house? house-temp [ ask house-temp [ set my-occupier nobody set rented-to nobody set for-sale? false set for-rent? true ] ] ] end to manage-ownership-buyer [buyer] let new-house [made-offer-on] of buyer ask buyer [ let house-temp my-house if on-market-type = "mortgage" [ ;; record the sale transaction hatch-records 1 [ hide-turtle move-to new-house set date ticks set the-house new-house set selling-price [sale-price] of new-house set renting-price [rent-price] of new-house ;ask [ my-realtor ] of new-house [ file-record myself ] file-record ([my-realtor] of new-house) self ] ;; manage the situation when a renter is buying and moving from their current my-house if is-house? my-house [ if [myType] of my-house = "rent" [ ask my-house [ set my-occupier nobody set rented-to nobody put-on-market ] ] ] ;; move to the new house show-turtle move-to new-house set homeless 0 set time-on-market 0 set on-cooldown? false set time-on-cooldown 0 set myType "mortgage" set my-house new-house set date-of-acquire ticks ;; address the parameters of the new house, and take it off the market ask new-house [ set myType "mortgage" set my-owner myself set my-occupier myself set rented-to nobody set offered-to nobody set for-sale? false set for-rent? false ] ;; manage the parameters of the buyer set my-ownership (list new-house) set made-offer-on nobody set on-market? false set on-market-type nobody ] if on-market-type = "buy-to-let" [ ;; record the transaction hatch-records 1 [ hide-turtle move-to new-house set date ticks set the-house new-house set selling-price [sale-price] of new-house set renting-price [rent-price] of new-house file-record ([my-realtor] of new-house) self ] ;; manage the parameters of the new house, and put it on the rent market (the buy-to-let buyers must directly put their new purchase on the "rent" market) ask new-house [ set myType "rent" set my-owner myself set my-occupier nobody set rented-to nobody set offered-to nobody put-on-market ] ;; manage the parameters of the buyer set time-on-market 0 set on-cooldown? false set time-on-cooldown 0 set my-ownership (lput new-house my-ownership) set made-offer-on nobody set on-market? false set on-market-type nobody ] ] end to manage-ownership-seller [seller seller-house] ask seller [ ;let my-ownership-temp my-ownership ;ask seller-house [set my-ownership-temp other turtle-set my-ownership-temp] ;set my-ownership my-ownership-temp set my-ownership remove seller-house my-ownership ] end ;; manages the surplus from a trade for the seller of an input house to manage-surplus-seller [seller seller-house] let new-house seller-house ;let surplus [sale-price] of seller-house - [mortgage] of seller ask seller [ ;; find the index of the seller-house let index-temp position seller-house my-ownership ;; find the mortgage of the seller-house let mortgage-temp item index-temp mortgage ;; calculate the monetary surplus from selling the house (surplus should always be above or equal 0) let surplus [sale-price] of seller-house - mortgage-temp set capital capital + surplus set mortgage remove-item index-temp mortgage set mortgage-initial remove-item index-temp mortgage-initial set repayment remove-item index-temp repayment set income-rent remove-item index-temp income-rent set surplus-rent remove-item index-temp surplus-rent set rate remove-item index-temp rate set rate-duration remove-item index-temp rate-duration set mortgage-duration remove-item index-temp mortgage-duration ;; surplus is higher than 0, meaning the seller made a profit above their total mortgage ;ifelse surplus >= 0 [set mortgage 0 set capital capital + surplus] ;; surplus is lower than 0, meaning the seller still has to pay a mortgage (all sale-price covers part of the mortgage) ;[set mortgage abs(surplus)] ;; calc repayment to pay back mortgage again after selling the house ;set repayment mortgage * interestPerTick / (1 - ( 1 + interestPerTick ) ^ ( - MortgageDuration * TicksPerYear )) ] end ;; owner function, manages capital, mortgage and repayment to manage-surplus-buyer [buyer] let new-house [made-offer-on] of buyer ;; deduct the costs from the buyer (we are certain the owner has no my-ownership, else they will be on the buy-to-let market) let duty stamp-duty-land-tax [sale-price] of new-house let price-and-duty [sale-price] of new-house + duty ask buyer [ ; if capital is not enough to pay for the house ifelse [sale-price] of new-house > capital [ ; borrow as much as possible, given owner's income and value of house, choose the smaller value of two calc formula ; make sure the buyer adds to their current mortgage (to make sure if they are no buy-to-let their mortgage accounts for more than one house) ; let mortgage-temp (min (list (income * Affordability / ( interestPerTick * ticksPerYear * 100 )) ; ([ sale-price ] of new-house * MaxLoanToValue / 100 ))) ;; after paying rest with capital, the remaining is still kept inside capital ; set capital capital - int ([ sale-price ] of new-house - mortgage-temp) - duty let mortgage-temp (price-and-duty - capital) set capital 0 ;; calc repayment to pay back mortgage let repayment-temp mortgage-temp * interestPerTick / (1 - ( 1 + interestPerTick ) ^ ( - MortgageDuration * TicksPerYear )) ;; assign the repayment-temp and mortgage temp to their respective list for the owners set mortgage lput mortgage-temp mortgage set mortgage-initial lput mortgage-temp mortgage-initial set repayment lput repayment-temp repayment set income-rent lput 0 income-rent set surplus-rent lput (0 - repayment-temp) surplus-rent ;; assign the mortgage rate and rate duration set rate lput interestPerTick rate ifelse length my-ownership = 0 [set rate-duration lput ((MinRateDurationM + random (MaxRateDurationM - MinRateDurationM)) * ticksPerYear) (rate-duration)] [set rate-duration lput ((MinRateDurationBTL + random (MaxRateDurationBTL - MinRateDurationBTL)) * ticksPerYear) (rate-duration)] set mortgage-duration lput (MortgageDuration * ticksPerYear) mortgage-duration ] ; or if the buyer is a cash buyer, capital pays all, mortgage, repayment both are 0, and remaining still kept in capital [ ;; if the buyer is paying in cash, their mortgage and repayment do not change set capital capital - [sale-price] of new-house - duty if capital < 0 [set capital 0] set mortgage lput 0 mortgage set mortgage-initial lput 0 mortgage-initial set repayment lput 0 repayment set income-rent lput 0 income-rent set surplus-rent lput 0 surplus-rent set rate lput 0 rate ;; nobody in rate-duration is a dummy variable assuring that this mortgage is never checked set rate-duration lput nobody rate-duration set mortgage-duration lput nobody mortgage-duration ] ] end to manage-surplus-landlord [landlord landlord-house] let rent-temp [rent-price] of landlord-house let index-temp position landlord-house [my-ownership] of landlord let repayment-temp item index-temp [repayment] of landlord ;; add the rent to the yearly income of the landlord ask landlord [ set income-rent replace-item index-temp income-rent rent-temp set surplus-rent replace-item index-temp surplus-rent (rent-temp - repayment-temp) ] end to manage-surplus-tenant [tenant] ;; assign the rent parameter of the tenant let new-house [made-offer-on] of tenant ask tenant [ set my-rent [ rent-price ] of new-house ] end to remove-outdates ;; remove old record ;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;; ; after certain period, all old records should be removed, realtors will remove all their sales ask records [ if date < (ticks - RealtorMemory) [ die ] ] ;; for each record, after RealtorMemory duration, it has to be removed ask realtors [ set sales-rent remove nobody sales-rent ] ;; ask realtors to remove dead records from the sales list ask realtors [ set sales-sold remove nobody sales-sold ] ;; ask realtors to remove dead records from the sales list ;; remove offers ;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;; ; remove the offer information upon a house ask houses with [ is-owner? offered-to ] [ ;; for each of the houses which have owners/buyer to make offer on ask offered-to [ set made-offer-on nobody ] ;; ask each buyer to set property `made-offer-on` as nobody set offered-to nobody ;; set the house's buyer property `offered-to` to be nobody set offer-date 0 ;; set house property `offer-date` to 0 ;set for-sale? false ;set for-rent? false ] end to demolish-houses ;; demolish houses ;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;; ;demolish old houses or houses with below minimum price set nDemolished 0 ;; record the number of demolished houses at each tick if any? records [ ;; if there are records left let minimum-price-sold min-price-fraction * medianPriceOfHousesForSale ;; set minimum-price to be 10% of all sold-houses median price let minimum-price-rent min-price-fraction * medianPriceOfHousesForRent ;; set minimum-price to be 10% of all sold-houses median price let houses-rent houses with [myType = "rent"] let houses-sell houses with [myType = "mortgage"] ;; ask all houses, if its life is over its life limit or if the house is for sale and sale-price < minimum-price let houses-to-demolish (turtle-set houses-sell with [ (ticks > end-of-life) or (for-sale? and sale-price < minimum-price-sold )] houses-rent with [ (ticks > end-of-life) or (for-rent? and rent-price < minimum-price-rent )] ) ask houses-to-demolish [ ;ask realtors [ unfile-record myself ] ;; delete any record that mentions the house inside the sales of a realtor ask realtors [unfile-record self myself] ; remove the house from the locality of its surrounding houses if calculate-wealth? = true [ask turtle-set locality-houses [set locality-houses remove myself locality-houses]] ;; if the house is for mortgage and not on sale (i.e., the owner should be the occupier of the house) if myType = "mortgage" and for-sale? = false [ ;; add the sale-price to the capital (this is applied as per the previous model without considering mortgage) ask my-owner [ set capital capital + [sale-price] of myself ] ;; evict the current occupier let my-occupier-temp my-occupier evict my-occupier-temp enter-market my-occupier-temp "mortgage" ;; demolish the house die ] ;; if the house is for mortgage and for sale (i.e., there are two options: (1) the owner put a rent house on the market as a type mortgage; (2) the owner put his/her own my-house on the market) if myType = "mortgage" and (for-sale? = true or for-rent? = true) [ ; If the house is offered to an agent if is-owner? offered-to [ ask offered-to [set made-offer-on nobody] ] ; if the house has an owner and an occupier (these must always be the same unless there is a bug) if is-owner? my-owner and is-owner? my-occupier [ ask my-owner [ set capital capital + [sale-price] of myself ] let my-occupier-temp my-occupier evict my-occupier-temp enter-market my-occupier-temp "mortgage" die ] ; if the house has an owner but there is nobody occupying it (can happen if it was for rent and is now put on the mortgage market due to a downshock or low income for the owner) if is-owner? my-owner and not is-owner? my-occupier [ ;; remove the house from the owner's current my-ownership ;let my-owner-temp my-owner ask my-owner [ ;let my-ownership-temp turtle-set my-ownership ;ask myself [set my-ownership-temp other turtle-set my-ownership-temp] ;set my-ownership my-ownership-temp ;; remove all the items associated to the demolished house from the owner's list let index-temp position myself my-ownership set my-ownership remove-item index-temp my-ownership set mortgage remove-item index-temp mortgage set repayment remove-item index-temp repayment set income-rent remove-item index-temp income-rent set surplus-rent remove-item index-temp surplus-rent ] die ] ;; demolish the house ;; this is a safety net for mortgage houses (should never be reached in the code) die ] if myType = "rent" [ ;; manage ownership (landlord) if is-owner? my-occupier [ ;; manage occupier (tenant) ;; evict the occupier let my-occupier-temp my-occupier evict my-occupier-temp ;; enter the rent market enter-market my-occupier-temp "rent" ] ;let my-owner-temp my-owner ask my-owner [ ;; add the capital to the landlord of the house set capital capital + [sale-price] of myself ;; remove the house from the ownership of the landlord ;let my-ownership-temp my-ownership ;ask myself [set my-ownership-temp other turtle-set my-ownership-temp] ;set my-ownership my-ownership-temp let index-temp position myself my-ownership set my-ownership remove-item index-temp my-ownership set mortgage remove-item index-temp mortgage set repayment remove-item index-temp repayment set income-rent remove-item index-temp income-rent set surplus-rent remove-item index-temp surplus-rent ] ;; make sure that any made offer for this house are cancelled if is-owner? offered-to [ ask offered-to [set made-offer-on nobody] ] ;; demolish house die ] ;; safety net to assure demolishing happens (in case different types of houses are added to the model in the future) die ] ] end to unfile-record [ input-realtors a-house ] ;; realtor procedure ifelse calculate-wealth? = true [ let A a-house let relevant-records records with [the-house = A] ask input-realtors [ ; find all the records that must be unfiled (will be used for houses) let sales-to-remove filter [ s -> [the-house] of s = A ] sales-sold let rents-to-remove filter [ s -> [the-house] of s = A ] sales-rent ; delete any record that mentions the house if [myType] of A = "mortgage" [set sales-sold filter [ s -> [the-house] of s != A ] sales-sold] ;; new-version] if [myType] of A = "rent" [set sales-rent filter [ s -> [the-house] of s != A ] sales-rent] ;; new-version] ; loop through all the records sales that need to be removed ask turtle-set sales-to-remove [ ; loop through all the houses that files the record sale in the current iteration ask turtle-set filed-at-houses [ ; loop through all the local-sales list (each corresponding to one of the `local-realtors` of the house that filed the record in the current iteration) foreach local-sales [ ; remove the record in the current iteration from the local-sales list in the current iteration records-list -> let index position records-list local-sales let filtered-at-index filter [a-record -> not member? a-record sales-to-remove] records-list set local-sales replace-item index local-sales filtered-at-index ] ] ] ask turtle-set rents-to-remove [ ask turtle-set filed-at-houses [ foreach local-rents [ records-list -> let index position records-list local-rents let filtered-at-index filter [a-record -> not member? a-record rents-to-remove] records-list set local-rents replace-item index local-rents filtered-at-index ] ] ] ] ] ; if calculate-wealth? = false [ ask input-realtors [ ; delete any record that mentions the house if [myType] of a-house = "mortgage" [set sales-sold filter [ s -> [the-house] of s != a-house ] sales-sold] ;; new-version] if [myType] of a-house = "rent" [set sales-rent filter [ s -> [the-house] of s != a-house ] sales-rent] ;; new-version] ] ] end to update-prices ;; reduce or update sale-prices of unsold houses ;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;; ;; reduce sale-price is a house is not sold in each tick ask houses with [ for-sale? = true and mytype = "mortgage"] [ ;; ask all houses which still are for sale set sale-price sale-price * (1 - PriceDropRate / 100 );; to reduce its sale-price by certain amount set rent-price rent-price * (1 - RentDropRate / 100 ) set on-market-period on-market-period + 1 ] ask houses with [ for-rent? = true and mytype = "rent"] [ ;; ask all houses which still are for sale set sale-price sale-price * (1 - PriceDropRate / 100 ) set rent-price rent-price * (1 - RentDropRate / 100 );; to reduce its sale-price by certain amount set on-market-period on-market-period + 1 ] end to update-owners ;; update owners' mortgage and repayment in each tick ;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;; ;; manage rents ask owners with [is-house? my-house and count turtle-set my-ownership > 1 and sum (mortgage) > 0] [ foreach my-ownership [ house-temp -> let i position house-temp my-ownership let mortgage-temp item i mortgage let repayment-temp item i repayment let income-rent-temp item i income-rent ;; replace the mortgage at index i with the new mortgage after repayment ;set mortgage replace-item i mortgage ( mortgage-temp - (repayment-temp - (interestPerTick * mortgage-temp)) ) set mortgage replace-item i mortgage ( mortgage-temp - repayment-temp ) ;; if the owner paid the full mortgage of the house, set the mortgage and repayments back to zero if item i mortgage <= 0 [ set mortgage replace-item i mortgage 0 set repayment replace-item i repayment 0 ] ;; calculate capital while adding income rent to the base income every tick set capital capital + ( (Savings / 100) * income-surplus ) ] ] ;; myType condition was considered againist the value 1. Modified to "mortgage" to align with the new model. ask owners with [ is-house? my-house and myType = "mortgage" and sum (mortgage) > 0 and count turtle-set my-ownership = 1] [ ;; ask all owners who do have one house and mortgage to pay set mortgage replace-item 0 mortgage ( (item 0 mortgage) - (item 0 repayment) ) ;; mortgage will be reduced due to repayment ;; add income rent to the base income every tick set capital capital + ( (Savings / 100) * income-surplus ) if item 0 mortgage <= 0 [ ;; if mortgage is fully repaid, then set both mortgage and repayment to 0 set mortgage replace-item 0 mortgage 0 set repayment replace-item 0 repayment 0 ] ] ;; update renters' capital in each tick ;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;; ;; myType condition was considered againist the value 0, Modified to "rent" to align with the new model. ask owners with [ is-house? my-house and myType = "rent" ] [ ;; ask all owners who do have houses and mortgage to pay set capital capital + ( (SavingsRent / 100) * income-surplus ) if capital < 0 [ set capital 0 ] ] ;; address the rate duration ask owners with [length my-ownership > 0] [ let i 0 let l length my-ownership while [i < l] [ ;; if the rate duration reached 0, if item i rate-duration = 0 and item i repayment > 0 [ ;; if there is a change in the interest rate, recalculate the mortgage and the repayment if item i rate != interestPerTick [ ;; find old and new interest rates let old-interest (item i rate) let new-interest interestPerTick ;; find remaining mortgage let total-mortgage item i mortgage-initial ;; calculate new repayment let old-repayment item i repayment let new-repayment total-mortgage * interestPerTick / (1 - ( 1 + interestPerTick ) ^ ( - MortgageDuration * ticksPerYear )) set repayment replace-item i repayment new-repayment ] ;; update the owner's rate and rate-duration parameters set rate replace-item i rate interestPerTick ; if this is the first house in my-ownership list (i.e., my-house) ifelse i = 0 [set rate-duration replace-item i rate-duration ((MinRateDurationM + random (MaxRateDurationM - MinRateDurationM)) * ticksPerYear)] [set rate-duration replace-item i rate-duration ((MinRateDurationBTL + random (MaxRateDurationBTL - MinRateDurationBTL)) * ticksPerYear)] ] let duration-temp 0 ;; subtract 1 tick from the rate duration if item i rate-duration != nobody [ set duration-temp (item i rate-duration) - 1 set rate-duration replace-item i rate-duration duration-temp ] if item i mortgage-duration != nobody [ set duration-temp (item i mortgage-duration) - 1 set mortgage-duration replace-item i mortgage-duration duration-temp ] ;; increment the index in the while loop set i i + 1 ] ] ;; update the surplus income of all owners ask owners [ update-surplus-income update-cooldown ] ;; update the wealth of if calculate-wealth? = true [ask owners [update-wealth]] end to reset-globals set nupShocked 0 set ndownShocked 0 set nUpShockedSell 0 set nDownShockedSell 0 set nUpShockedRent 0 set nDownShockedRent 0 set nForceSell 0 set nHomeless 0 set medianPriceOfHousesForSale 0 set medianPRiceOfHousesForRent 0 set medianSalePriceHouses 0 set medianRentPriceRentHouses 0 set investors investorsPercentage / 100 end to update-globals set medianSalePriceHouses median ([sale-price] of houses with [myType = "mortgage" and sale-price > 0]) set medianRentPriceRentHouses median ([rent-price] of houses with [myType = "rent" and rent-price > 0]) end to update-visualisation if visualiseModeCurrent != VisualiseMode [ if visualiseMode = "Prices" [ ask houses with [myType = "mortgage"] [set size 0.9 set color scale-color red sale-price (max [sale-price] of houses with [mytype = "mortgage"]) (min [sale-price] of houses with [mytype = "mortgage"])] ask houses with [myType = "rent"] [set size 0.9 set color scale-color blue rent-price (max [rent-price] of houses with [mytype = "rent"]) (min [rent-price] of houses with [mytype = "rent"])] set visualiseModeCurrent "Prices" ] if visualiseMode = "Types" [ ask houses with [myType = "mortgage"] [set size 0.9 set color red] ask houses with [myType = "rent"] [set size 0.9 set color sky] set visualiseModeCurrent "Types" ] ] ;; these modes have to be called every step (computationally demanding) if visualiseMode = "Diversity by prices" [ ask houses [calculate-diversity] ask houses [set color scale-color red diversity (max [diversity] of houses) (min [diversity] of houses)] set visualiseModeCurrent "Diversity by prices" ] if visualiseMode = "Hotspot prices (Getis-Ord)" [ calculate-G ask houses [set color palette:scale-gradient [[0 0 255] [255 255 255] [255 0 0]] G -5 5] set visualiseModeCurrent "Hotspot prices (Getis-Ord)" ] end to colour-house if visualiseMode = "Prices" [ if myType = "mortgage" [set size 0.9 set color scale-color red sale-price (max [sale-price] of houses with [mytype = "mortgage"]) (min [sale-price] of houses with [mytype = "mortgage"])] if myType = "rent" [set size 0.9 set color scale-color blue rent-price (max [rent-price] of houses with [mytype = "rent"]) (min [rent-price] of houses with [mytype = "rent"])] stop ] if visualiseMode = "Types" [ if myType = "mortgage" [set size 0.9 set color red] if myType = "rent" [set size 0.9 set color sky] stop ] if visualiseMode = "Diversity by prices" [ set color scale-color red diversity (max [diversity] of houses) (min [diversity] of houses) ] end to calculate-diversity set diversity 0 let my-neighbours houses-on neighbors let min-price min [sale-price] of houses with [myType = "mortgage"] let max-price max [sale-price] of houses with [myType = "mortgage"] let min-rent min [rent-price] of houses with [myType = "rent"] let max-rent max [rent-price] of houses with [myType = "rent"] let intervals 3 let increment-price (max-price - min-price) / intervals let increment-rent (max-rent - min-rent) / intervals ifelse any? my-neighbours [ if myType = "mortgage" [ let threshold min-price while [threshold < max-price] [ let increment-start threshold let increment-end threshold + increment-price ;; calculate diversity index let composite count houses-here with [(sale-price > increment-start) and (sale-price < increment-end)] + count my-neighbours with [sale-price > increment-start and sale-price < increment-end] let composite-total count houses-here with [sale-price > increment-start and sale-price < increment-end] + count my-neighbours if composite > 0 [set diversity diversity + ( (composite / composite-total) + ln(composite / composite-total) )] ;; add to the threshold set threshold threshold + increment-price ] ] if myType = "rent" [ let threshold min-rent while [threshold < max-rent] [ let increment-start threshold let increment-end threshold + increment-rent ;; calculate diversity index let composite count houses-here with [rent-price > increment-start and rent-price < increment-end] + count my-neighbours with [rent-price > increment-start and rent-price < increment-end] let composite-total count houses-here with [rent-price > increment-start and rent-price < increment-end] + count my-neighbours if composite > 0 [set diversity diversity + ( (composite / composite-total) + ln(composite / composite-total) )] ;; add to the threshold set threshold threshold + increment-rent ] ] ] [set diversity 0] set diversity diversity * -1 end to calculate-G let sum-price-sqrd 0 ask houses with [myType = "mortgage" and sale-price > 0] [set sum-price-sqrd sum-price-sqrd + (sale-price * sale-price)] ask houses with [myType = "mortgage"] [ let n count houses with [myType = "mortgage" and sale-price > 0] ifelse any? (houses-on neighbors) with [myType = "mortgage" and sale-price > 0] [ let w 1 / 8 let sum-w-sqrd 0 let sum-w w * count (houses-on neighbors) with [myType = "mortgage" and sale-price > 0] ask (houses-on neighbors) with [myType = "mortgage" and sale-price > 0] [set sum-w-sqrd sum-w-sqrd + (w * w)] let X sum [sale-price] of houses with [myType = "mortgage" and sale-price > 0] / n let S sqrt ( (sum-price-sqrd / n) - (X ^ 2) ) ;type "X = " type X type "| S = " type S type " | sum-state-sqrd = " type sum-state-sqrd type " | sum-w-sqrd = " type sum-w-sqrd type "| denemonator = " type S * sqrt( (n * sum-w-sqrd) - (w * count neighbors) ^ 2) type "\n" set G ( (w * sum [sale-price] of (houses-on neighbors) with [myType = "mortgage" and sale-price > 0]) - (X * sum-w) ) / ( S * sqrt( ( (n * sum-w-sqrd) - (sum-w) ^ 2 ) / (n - 1) ) ) ] [set G 0] ] let sum-rent-sqrd 0 ask houses with [myType = "rent" and rent-price > 0] [set sum-rent-sqrd sum-rent-sqrd + (rent-price * rent-price)] ask houses with [myType = "rent"] [ let n count houses with [myType = "rent" and rent-price > 0] ifelse any? (houses-on neighbors) with [myType = "rent" and rent-price > 0] [ let w 1 / 8 let sum-w-sqrd 0 let sum-w w * count (houses-on neighbors) with [myType = "rent" and rent-price > 0] ask (houses-on neighbors) with [myType = "rent" and rent-price > 0] [set sum-w-sqrd sum-w-sqrd + (w * w)] let X sum [rent-price] of houses with [myType = "rent" and rent-price > 0] / n let S sqrt ( (sum-rent-sqrd / n) - (X ^ 2) ) ;type "X = " type X type "| S = " type S type " | sum-state-sqrd = " type sum-state-sqrd type " | sum-w-sqrd = " type sum-w-sqrd type "| denemonator = " type S * sqrt( (n * sum-w-sqrd) - (w * count neighbors) ^ 2) type "\n" set G ( (w * sum [rent-price] of (houses-on neighbors) with [myType = "rent" and rent-price > 0]) - (X * sum-w) ) / ( S * sqrt( ( (n * sum-w-sqrd) - (sum-w) ^ 2 ) / (n - 1) ) ) ] [set G 0] ] end
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File | Type | Description | Last updated | |
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UK Housing ABM Simple UI.png | preview | Preview for 'UK Housing ABM Simple UI' | 5 days ago, by Yahya Gamal | Download |
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