Epidemic development and control
Do you have questions or comments about this model? Ask them here! (You'll first need to log in.)
WHAT IS IT?
This model simulates the epidemic dynamics in a human population based on a revised SEIR model, in which the disease is spread by the infected presymptomatic carriers while infectious people are well isolated (at home or hospital) and therefore cannot infect others.
RELATED MODELS
More epidemic models at www://3dsciencemodeling.com. These models are developed for teaching basic epidemic processes and conceptions.
CREDITS AND REFERENCES
Coded by Lin Xiang at the Unversity of Kentucky as part of the modeling science unit materials. email: lin.xiang@uky.edu
If you mention this model or the NetLogo software in a publication, we ask that you include the citations below.
For the model itself:
- Xiang, L (2021). Epidemic Development and Control. Department of STEM Education, University of Kentucky, Lexington, KY.
Please cite the NetLogo software as:
- Wilensky, U. (1999). NetLogo. http://ccl.northwestern.edu/netlogo/. Center for Connected Learning and Computer-Based Modeling, Northwestern University, Evanston, IL.
COPYRIGHT AND LICENSE
This work is licensed under the Creative Commons Attribution-NonCommercial-ShareAlike 3.0 License. To view a copy of this license, visit https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-sa/3.0/ or send a letter to Creative Commons, 559 Nathan Abbott Way, Stanford, California 94305, USA.
Comments and Questions
turtles-own [ days-after-exposure days-of-sick] Patches-own [ ] Globals [ max-daily-cases ] to setup ca setup-turtles setup-patches reset-ticks end to setup-turtles create-turtles population-size [set color 68 set size 1.75 set shape "person" setxy random-xcor random-ycor ] end to setup-1 ask turtles [die] setup-turtles setup-patches add-a-carrier reset-ticks end to setup-patches ask patches [set pcolor 52] end to go if ticks > incubation-period and count turtles with [color = red] = 0 [stop] move transmission incubation sickness find-max-daily-cases tick end to move ask turtles with [shape = "person"] [right random 360 forward mobility] end to add-a-carrier ask one-of turtles ;choose a random person [set color orange ;set the color as orange (carrier color) ] end to transmission ask turtles with [color = orange] ;Hi, carriers [let susceptible-person one-of other turtles in-radius 1.5 with [color = 68] ;Are there any susceptible people near you (within a radius of 1.5)? if susceptible-person != nobody ;If there is at least one [ask susceptible-person ;ask the suscetiple person [ if random 100 < transmission-rate ;at the defined transmission rate [set color orange] ;to become a carrier (orange color) ] ] ] end to incubation ask turtles with [color = orange] ;Hi carriers [ifelse days-after-exposure < incubation-period ;If the number of days after you get infected is smaller than the defined incubation period [set days-after-exposure days-after-exposure + 1] ;increase the number of days after exposure by 1 [set color red set shape "house"] ;otherwise, become infectious (red color) ] end to sickness ask turtles with [color = red] ;Hi sick people, [ifelse days-of-sick < 14 ;if you have not been sick for 14 days [set days-of-sick days-of-sick + 1] ;remain sick and increase the number of sick days by 1 [ifelse random 100 < mortality ;otherwise, at the define mortality rate [die] ;die [set color blue set shape "person"] ;or recover ] ] end to vaccination let num-of-susceptible (count turtles with [color = 68]) ;find the number of susceptible people let num-of-vaccinated (num-of-susceptible * vaccination-rate * 0.01) ;calculate number of susceptubel people to be vaccinated ask n-of num-of-vaccinated turtles with [color = 68] ;find these many susceptible people [set color blue] ;set as immune (blue) end to find-max-daily-cases if count turtles with [color = red ] > max-daily-cases ;Count the infectious.If it is greater than the current record of max daily cases [set max-daily-cases count turtles with [color = red ]] ;update the max daily case end
There is only one version of this model, created almost 4 years ago by lin xiang.
This model does not have any ancestors.
This model does not have any descendants.